357
FXUS61 KCAR 210541
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1241 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
12:41AM UPDATE...NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SCHEME SATELLITE DATA
SHOWING US SOME HIGH CIRRUS AT TIMES IS NOTED ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY TRICKY TONIGHT WITH
LOCATIONS DECOUPLING AND LOCATIONS WHERE THE WINDS CONTINUE TO
STIR. AS OF 11:45PM ESTCOURT STATION WAS ALREADY DOWN TO -20F
WITH OTHER NORTH WOODS LOCATIONS DOWN TO -10F OR SO. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE DOWN TO -10F TO 0F. TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND BANGOR REGION ARE RANGING FROM -8F TO
0F AND SEEING PLENTY -5F TO +5F READING DOWNEAST TO THE
SHORELINE. WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE TRENDS BASED ON OBS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING THEIR COLDEST NIGHT/MORNING THIS SEASON. ALL
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
NO CHANGES TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WHILE LOW PRESSURE EXITS
NORTHEAST OF LABRADOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 20 BELOW TO AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND
10 BELOW TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED EVENING
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES NORTH, MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST TUESDAY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO
TO 5 ABOVE NORTH, TO THE MID TEENS DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD, SO WIND CHILLS/APPARENT TS WON'T BE
QUITE AS COLD. MIXED IN SOME LOWER GUIDANCE ACROSS VALLEYS SINCE
DECOUPLING MAY DROP TEMPS A LITTLE BIT MORE. COLD DAYTIME TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME
MODERATION WILL BEGIN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CREEPING IN
LATER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP EARLY IN THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THEN FLATTEN OUT A LITTLE BIT BY MORNING WITH THE ADDED
INSULATION. ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH A WEAKER TROUGH BRINGING A
SECONDARY BURST OF COLD AIR. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND NOT AFFECT MAINE, HOWEVER THE WAY IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, MODEL BLENDS INDICATE
THAT THE SECONDARY FRONT MAY BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH,
KEEPING ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE DOWNEAST COAST. SHOULD THE
LOW MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD, CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. REGARDLESS, NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET, WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FROM THE COLD BLAST EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS HOVERING AROUND ZERO. ON SUNDAY THIS WILL CHANGE WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, TEMPS
WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, BUT THEN BY MONDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD BLAST IS EXPECTED. BLENDS
RIGHT NOW AREN'T REALLY CAPTURING THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD AIR,
SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY TEMPS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO AGAIN IF
850HPA TEMPS REACH -25C AS THE DETERMINISTICS ARE CURRENTLY
SHOWING. THIS IS ALSO THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY FALL AS SNOW, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
INSIGNIFICANT. EXPECT DETAILS TO RESOLVE AS THIS PERIOD GETS
CLOSER IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY AT PQI, CAR AND FVE AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE
OFF OF THE ST. LAWRENCE EARLY THIS EVENING. SKC AT MOST SITES
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CLOUDS MOVING IN MID-
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...VFR. LIGHT NW/W WINDS
BECOMING S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH. LIGHT S
WINDS BECOMING W.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. W WINDS 10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED GALES FOR THE INTRACOASTAL
ZONE. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20KTS WITH SEAS UNDER 5FT AND A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THIS ZONE INTO THIS
MORNING. GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 03Z WED WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY, FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY, REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT WINDS (>25 KTS) DIMINISHING DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THEN RETURNING THURSDAY AND DIMINISHING AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY A CONCERN PARTICULARLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH LIKELY TO RETURN THURSDAY DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET WEDS, THEN
RETURNING TO 3 TO 5 FEET THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/SINKO
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...NORCROSS/SINKO/LF
MARINE...NORCROSS/SINKO/LF
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