952
FXUS61 KCAR 211202
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
702 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
ON THURSDAY. AN OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
7:02AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINE WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COMPLETELY DECOUPLED. -27F IN ESTCOURT STATION,
ITS -22F IN FOX BROOK, -10F HERE AT THE OFFICE, -17F AT KOKADJO,
ITS -17F AT KENDUSKEAG, -14F IN WESLEY AND -12F IN EAST SURRY.
THE SUN IS SLOWLY RISING RIGHT NOW AND EXPECTING THE DIURNAL
CURVE TO BEGIN WITH GRADUAL WARMING BUT TODAY IS A BITTER COLD
DAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY PICK UP AND MAY CAUSE -10F TO -18F WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY FEATURES UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS
THE TROF AXIS AT 500MB TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. 925MB TEMPERATURES TODAY REMAIN IN AND AROUND
THE -20C MARK. THE FLOW IS OUT OF THE SW BUT WITH HOW DEEP THE
COLD AIR IN PLACE IS, DON'T EXPECT OUR NORMAL "WARM WIND" TO
HELP AT ALL TODAY. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH FROM MOOSEHEAD TO BAXTER TO THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY. HIGHS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 0F TO +7F RANGE. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST EXPECTING HIGHS
OF 10-15F WITH 15-20F ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST. WINDS 5-15MPH
WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS TODAY -15F TO -10F ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ELSEWHERE GENERALLY AROUND 0F. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TODAY WHICH IS ACTUALLY AIDING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM MOOSEHEAD REGION TO EASTERN
AROOSTOOK INCLUDING BAXTER SP AREA. TONIGHT, EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP AND TURN MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS
THE 500MB TROF SLIDES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL GO RATHER CALM
TONIGHT WHICH MAKES IT A CHALLENGE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE
AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MODIFIES. WILL GO WITH -20F TO -10F ACROSS THE
NORTH, -15F TO -5F IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND -5F TO +5F
DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH RIDGE AXIS CRESTING OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD
AIRMASS REMAINS WITH H9 TEMPS STILL AROUND -25C. BY EVENING RIDGE
AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA. SFC LOW LIKELY TO BE LOCATED OVER LK
SUPERIOR WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE
UPR TROF HIGH CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS
OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE STABILIZING OR SLOWLY RISING
THRU DAYBREAK.
UPR LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC SNOW
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPR LVL
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE OUTER AREAS ON THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH LATE WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS EARLY THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THOUGH AN
UPR LVL TROF FCST TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTH AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR DOWNEAST.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH OCNL SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS NRN ZONES.
ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED
SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: SKC THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AROOSTOOK TERMS. VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. SW WINDS
5-15KT TODAY. EXPECTING VFR TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WSW 5-10KTS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AT DOWNEAST
TERMINALS AND LIGHT SNOW. SSW 5-10KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. W 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS TILL 9AM FOR MODERATE
SPRAY THIS MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT ON ALL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
TILL 10PM THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. W WINDS TODAY
15-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AND SEAS 4-7FT. WINDS ON THE
INTRA- COASTAL WATERS MAY GUST UP TO 25KT AT TIMES BUT FEW
EXPECTED. TONIGHT, WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO 25KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER 5FT UNTIL RISING THURSDAY MORNING
AND REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED LATE WEEK OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...SINKO
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...SINKO/BUSTER
MARINE...SINKO/BUSTER
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