451
FXUS61 KCAR 211554
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1054 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY. AN OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO CROSS LATE. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH, TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT, EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND TURN MOSTLY CLEAR
AGAIN FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS THE 500MB TROF SLIDES OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL GO RATHER CALM TONIGHT WHICH MAKES IT A CHALLENGE FOR
TEMPERATURES AS THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MODIFIES. WILL GO WITH
-20F TO -10F ACROSS THE NORTH, -15F TO -5F IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND -5F TO +5F DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH RIDGE AXIS CRESTING OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD
AIRMASS REMAINS WITH H9 TEMPS STILL AROUND -25C. BY EVENING RIDGE
AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA. SFC LOW LIKELY TO BE LOCATED OVER LK
SUPERIOR WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE
UPR TROF HIGH CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS
OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE STABILIZING OR SLOWLY RISING
THRU DAYBREAK.
UPR LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC SNOW
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPR LVL
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE OUTER AREAS ON THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH LATE WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS EARLY THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THOUGH AN
UPR LVL TROF FCST TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTH AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR DOWNEAST.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH OCNL SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS NRN ZONES.
ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED
SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WSW 5-10KTS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AT DOWNEAST
TERMINALS AND LIGHT SNOW. SSW 5-10KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. W 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
WITH THIS UPDATE. HOWEVER, LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE
TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, THROUGH
10 PM THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM: WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO 25KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER 5FT UNTIL RISING THURSDAY MORNING
AND REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED LATE WEEK OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/SINKO
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BUSTER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BUSTER
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