424
FXUS61 KCAR 220451
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1151 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. AN OCEAN LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
11:51PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL FAST IN LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE COMPLETELY DECOUPLED. -10 TO -18F ACROSS THE NORTH
WOODS ALREADY WITH -13F AT PRESQUE ISLE, -15F AT HOULTON, ITS
A -10F AT MEDFORD AND -12F AT DANFORTH. HERE AT CARIBOU WE ARE
STILL -4F THANKS TO A 3-5MPH WIND. JONESBORO SITTING AT 6F ON
THE HILLTOP BUT DOWN TO -6F IN OTHER AREAS OF THE TOWN. MIXING
WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO PREDICT AND WIDE VARYING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TONIGHT, THERE IS NEVER GOOD GUIDANCE WITH THESE
SITUATIONS AND MAKING ADJUSTMENTS AS BEST FIT. ONLY OTHER CHANGE
WAS TO START THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS FROM NOW THROUGH 10AM EST, THE REST OF THE WATERS
THE ADVISORY BEGINS AT 3AM AND RUNS TILL 10AM.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER WILL SUPPORT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL RAPIDLY TONIGHT. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, GENERALLY EXPECT
LOWS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO, LOCALLY COLDER. BASED ON EXPECTED
APPARENT TEMPERATURES, HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, GENERALLY EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 5 BELOW TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO,
LOCALLY COLDER. EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO AROUND 10
NORTH, TO THE MID TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY EVENING WEDNESDAY EVENING RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE WITH NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM
CANADA. SFC LOW LIKELY TO BE LOCATED OVER LK SUPERIOR WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF HIGH
CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. NON-DIURNAL TEMPS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS OCCURRING
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE STABILIZING OR SLOWLY RISING THRU
DAYBREAK.
UPR LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC SNOW
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPR LVL
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MIDDLE 20S ALONG THE COAST SO
CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK DUSTING TO NEAR ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER
THE OUTER AREAS ON THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH LATE WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS EARLY THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
H5 RIDGING ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR DOWNEAST.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH OCNL SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND, MAINLY
ACROSS NRN ZONES. ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CONTINUED SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DEEPER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD BUT THIS LIKELY TO BRING JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT
SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR
CIG MOVING THRU NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT SSW WINDS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
TERMINALS, AND POSSIBLY AT BHB WITH MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. S
5-10KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. WSW 5-10KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR
OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. SW 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: UPDATE... A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT ON THE WATERS BUT
GENERALLY WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOW
THROUGH 10AM WHILE THE REST OF THE WATERS 3AM-10AM, FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 5FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25-30KTS AND SEAS
INCREASING TO 4-7 FEET.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
010.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ051-052.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/SINKO
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...NORCROSS/SINKO/CLARK
MARINE...NORCROSS/SINKO/CLARK
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