894
FXUS61 KCAR 160918
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
418 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION TODAY, THEN EXITS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE
MARITIMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
*SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM GETS UNDERWAY TODAY*
*WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS LIKELY*
HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. NORTHERN MAINE FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY. CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY. BANGOR REGION TO CALAIS TO THE DOWNEAST COAST FROM 4 AM
EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY.
SETUP...AT 500MB A TROF WILL EJECT NE OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND PUSH NE INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A 140KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE TROF AND
ALLOWS FOR A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS EJECTING TROF
IS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING. AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER NEW JERSEY
TODAY SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS AND A
NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL TAKE PLACE AS PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5-1 INCH
OVER THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. WARM
MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE DOWNEAST INTO CENTRAL HIGHLANDS GENERATING
STRONG 925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELED SOUNDINGS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON SHOWING EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.
MODELED SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WARM NOSE WORKS IN AROUND 825MB THAT
WILL RESULT IN THE CHANGE OR PTYPE AND REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
LASTING SEVERAL HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE MAINE COAST AND TRACK NE RIGHT ALONG THE
SHORELINE THEN INTO NEW BRUNSWICK POTENTIALLY PASSING RIGHT OVER
EASTPORT BY LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG BACKSIDE SURFACE TROF
WILL SUPPORT A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NORTHERN MAINE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING. BY TOMORROW
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE GULF
OF ST. LAWRENCE WITH PERSISTENT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION.
DOWNEAST & CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING GENERALLY LIGHT BUT BECOMING MODERATE BY
MIDDAY. SNOW TOTALS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE 3-5
INCHES FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST, 5-7 INCHES FOR BANGOR REGION AND
6-10 INCHES FOR THE ROUTE 6 CORRIDOR. DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECTING THE WARM NOSE AROUND 825MB TO BECOME
+1C TO +3C AND TURN PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS BELOW 30F BUT ALONG THE SHORELINE AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 30-32F EXPECTING SLEET TO BECOME FREEZING
RAIN AS THE COLD POCKET DOWN LOW SHRINKS RAPIDLY. EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.7-1.2 INCH WITH ICING OF
0.1 TO 0.25 INCH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE
GREATER SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT CAN HANG
ON TO SUB 30F READINGS ALONG I-95 BETWEEN NEWPORT AND OLD TOWN
INCLUDING BANGOR REGION THEN EAST ALONG ROUTE 6 TO TOPSFIELD AND
POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS DANFORTH. MODELED SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT CUTOFF OF THE MIXED
PRECIP FROM GUILFORD TO MEDWAY TO ORIENT REGION POINTS
SOUTHWARD. IN TERMS OF ICING...LOOKING AT GENERALLY 0.1 TO 0.25
INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ICE ACCRETION. ONE THING THAT MIGHT CAUSE
ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OCCURRING IS OCCURRING WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THAT IS
AVAILABLE TO FALL. TYPICALLY ICE CANNOT ACCRETE WELL DURING
HEAVY PRECIP SO OPTED TO KEEP THE ICING TAMPED DOWN FOR NOW
BECAUSE OF THIS FACTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE 32F
THIS EVENING OVER COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
POTENTIALLY CALAIS TURNING ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN BEFORE THINGS
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 2AM TONIGHT.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW,
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. IN ADDITION NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
GUST 30-35MPH AT TIMES TILL THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY. GUSTY
WINDS WITH SOME ICING ON TREES AND POWERLINES MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD CONCERNS OTHER THAN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
NORTHERN MAINE...INCLUDING MOOSEHEAD, BAXTER TO HOULTON
NORTHWARD TO ST. JOHN VALLEY...SNOW DEVELOPS LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND BECOMES MODERATE AT TIMES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE TEENS TODAY AS THE SNOW
DEVELOPS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY STEADY INTO TONIGHT. AS
THE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND DOWNEAST COAST THIS
MORNING EXPECT THE SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STRONG AREA OF FGEN FORCING WILL LEAD TO
A NICE DEFORMATION BAND OVER NORTHERN MAINE WITH POTENTIALLY
MULTIPLE BANDS FORMING. IN THESE BANDS SNOWFALL RATES MAY
APPROACH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION, NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GUSTING 20-30MPH AND
WILL IN TURN RESULT IN THE FLUFFY SNOW BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN
OPEN AREAS. INTIALLY SLRS START IN THE 15:1 RANGE BUT AS WINDS
INCREASE IN THE DGZ AND WARMER AIR (STILL BELOW 0C) WORKS NORTH
EXPECT SLRS TO FALL. EXPECTING SLRS 7-8:1 FOR MOOSEHEAD TO
HOULTON, 10-11:1 FOR CHURCHILL DAM TO ASHLAND TO CARIBOU AND
THEN 13-15:1 FOR THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND FAR NORTH WOODS. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEAVY LIQUID RATES SUPPORT OUR LARGEST WINTER
STORM THIS SEASON AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WRAP AROUND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE FALLEN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
STORM TOTALS OF 10-15 INCHES FOR MOOSEHEAD TO HOULTON TO BAXTER
SP. ASHLAND, CARIBOU, PRESQUE ISLE TO ST. JOHN VALLEY EXPECTING
15-20 INCHES WITH POTENTIALLY ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. BEST IDEA
WOULD BE TO AVOID TRAVEL UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TILL MONDAY AM. VISIBILITY WILL BE 1/4MI OR LESS
IN HEAVY SNOW AND ANY BLOWING SNOW. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL PLEASE
HAVE WINTER SURVIVAL KITS IN YOUR CAR AND BE PREPARED FOR
DANGEROUS WINTER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OPEN AGRICULTURAL AREAS OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON MOTORISTS. THE EXISTENCE OF
CONTINUING SNOW WILL EXACERBATE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE WINTER STORM WARNING ON MONDAY DUE TO THESE
CONCERNS. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, MONDAY WILL
BE DRY AND DOWNSLOPING WILL PRODUCE SOME SUNNY INTERVALS.
THE WINDS CONTINUE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
BELOW -20F, LIKELY NECESSITATING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST TUESDAY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY ALONG WITH
BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A LESSENING IMPACT
OF THE BLOWING SNOW ON TRAVEL. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WARMING
ALOFT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRATOCU FIELDS SEEM FAIRLY
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD HELP RESULT
IN MINIMAL TEMPERATURE DROPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM TUESDAY
DAYTIME TEMPS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FAIRLY QUIET IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW IN MARITIMES WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. RIDGING ALOFT
GRADUALLY BUILDS BY LATE WEEK. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOUTH IN THE PAST DAY ACROSS THE
BOARD. STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT IMPACTS TOWARDS THE COAST AND
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES FRIDAY, GUSTY
NORTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THESE WINDS WILL BE OF A MUCH
LOWER MAGNITUDE THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: NORTHERN TERMS...VFR HIGH CIGS THIS AM BECOMING
MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SN. IFR/LIFR TONIGHT CIGS/VSBY DUE
TO SN. +SN & BLSN POSSIBLE TO REDUCE CONDITIONS TO VLIFR. TERMS
LIKELY BELOW MINIMUMS 00Z-09Z TONIGHT. SN CONTINUES WITH BLSN
THROUGH 12Z MON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE NE 5-15KT GUSTING TO 20KT
BY LATE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE NE THROUGH MIDNIGHT 10-20KT
THEN SHIFTING NW BY 12Z THU AND BEGIN INCREASING. LLWS POSSIBLE
AT HUL AFTER 23Z TODAY.
SOUTHERN TERMS...VFR AT BGR WITH MVFR AT BHB CIGS AND BHB VSBY
AT TIMES IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TREND TOWARDS
MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING. IFR BY LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON SN
WITH VSBY DOWN TO 1/2SM WILL MIX AND CHANGE TO PL AND FZRA AT
TIMES. VSBY WILL IMPROVE WITH PL/FZRA TO 2-3SM. ANY PL/FZRA WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNSH TONIGHT. TODAY NE WINDS 10-15KT GUSTING TO
30KT. LLWS LIKELY 22Z ONWARD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE TO GUST 20-30KT. LLWS WILL SHIFT FROM 110-140 TO
200-220.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY...IFR/LIFR NORTH OF GNR AND HUL WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. VFR FOR BGR AND BHB WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40
KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, NORTH OF HUL AND GNR
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. WEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR NORTH OF HUL AND GNR
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR BGR AND BHB.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25
KNOTS TUESDAY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY... VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHEST RISK FOR BHB AND BGR. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: E-ENE GALES DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH THE GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT AFTER 10AM EST. BY LATE AFTERNOON SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 40KT THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT FROM E TO S TO W FROM 8PM-12AM TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE WATERS. BY DAYBREAK WIND GUSTS
WILL APPROACH STORM CONDITIONS AND A STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
AFTER 7AM EST MON. SEAS TONIGHT BUILD TO 11-16FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND 5-10FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM: CONFIDENCE IN STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
WESTERLY AND GUSTS OVER 50 KT ARE EXPECTED. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 15 TO 17 FT RANGE DURING THE PERIOD AND SLOWLY DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE STORM FORCE WINDS,
GALES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE GALES SUBSIDE. A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STRONGER WINDS IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, BUT SCA CONDITIONS RENEW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES ON FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MEZ011-031-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...SINKO
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...SINKO/MCW
MARINE...SINKO/MCW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page