719
FXUS61 KCAR 162300
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE DOWNEAST REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. THE LOW REMAINS ACROSS
THE MARITIMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
6 PM UPDATE: SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT LOW
PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY IN NY WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR CAPE COD. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL DEEPEN VERY
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND TRACK ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST FROM
NEAR BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ABSORBING WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW
ACROSS NY. THE INTENSE LOW SHOULD EXIT INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
BRUNSWICK BY AROUND OR PERHAPS A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EVERYTHING THUS FAR IS PLAYING OUT ABOUT HOW EXPECTED WITH THE
STORM. COMBINATION OF GROUND TRUTH REPORTS ALONG WITH THE
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FROM THE 88-D INDICATES A LINE IN
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND CENTRAL PENOBSCOT SOUTH WHERE THERE IS
A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN. NORTH OF THE LINE, IT
IS ALL SNOW. THE LINE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY MOVE NORTH, PERHAPS
TRYING TO GET AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON LATER TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD, BUT OVERALL
THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE
STORM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVES
EASTWARD, AND PRODUCES A LOW-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC, AROUND NEW JERSEY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY LOOKS ON TRACK TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF OF MAINE, AND MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES TONIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS, WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING, REDUCING VISIBILITY. THIS LOW -PRESSURE SYSTEM,
BASED ON ITS LOCATION, IS IN A GOOD SPOT TO ADVECT IN SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE COASTLINES FOR A SHORT TIME THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING SOME FREEZING RAIN AND ICE.
INTERIOR COUNTIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SLEET, IN AREAS
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH OF HOULTON. VERY GOOD FGN INDICATED ALONG
THE COASTLINE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, INDICATING SOME PERIODS
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY FORECASTING 5-9 INCHES, WITH
AROUND ONE INCH OF SLEET. ICE TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST
LINE, RANGING FROM 0.15-0.30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LESS
VALUES NORTH OF THE COAST. VERY SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED!
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND
SHIFT NORTH, WHERE IT WILL PARK TO OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA, PROVIDING
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CURRENTLY LOOKING BETWEEN 17-23 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND THE NORTH WOODS AREAS. TOMORROW, IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS, CAUSING FOR
HIGH WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST. WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST REGION. DUE TO RECENT SNOWFALL,
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, MAKING TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE NORTH
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO STAY COVERED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN THE TEENS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 20S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEPARTING COASTAL WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY EVENING
LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN WRAP-AROUND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO NEAR 35 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW BEFORE DECREASING AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
SINGLE DIGITS COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
STRATOCU POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO
A MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGE FOR LOWS. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
S/WV RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE NEXT UPR LOW APPROACHES. AT THE SAME TIME THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
SFC LOW WILL BE EJECTING OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BASED ON UPPER
AIR PATTERN THIS COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO CWA OTHER THAN LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
WITH OCNL SHORTWAVES ZIPPING THROUGH BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT, IN HEAVY SNOW AT THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS,
AND SNOW TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX FOR KBGR/KBHB. NE WIND 10
TO 15 KT G25 KT BECOMING W TO NW TOWARD DAYBREAK. WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR AT THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS ON MONDAY IN OCCASIONAL
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. MAINLY VFR FOR KBGR/KBHB. W WIND 15 20 25 KT
G35 KT.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR, OCNL LIFR OVER AROOSTOOK TERMINALS IN SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW. VFR FOR DOWNEAST TERMINALS. W 10-20KTS GUSTING
TO 35KTS.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. W 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN TERMINALS. W 5-10KTS WEDNESDAY BECOMING N 5-10KTS
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
FRIDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS. AS LOW MOVES EAST WINDS
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AND HAVE ISSUED A STORM WARNING FROM 9
AM MONDAY EST THROUGH 9 AM EST TUESDAY. SEAS INCREASE FROM 5FT
THIS EVENING TO 15FT MONDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: GALES CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DROPPING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. NO HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029>032.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN/CB
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...BRENNAN/CB/BUSTER
MARINE...BRENNAN/CB/BUSTER
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