120
FXUS61 KCAR 171818
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
118 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
115 PM UPDATE...
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE GASPE
PENINSULA AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. WEST WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING
TO BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, AND OCCASIONALLY 50 MPH, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. HAVE REPLACED WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND ALL OF AROOSTOOK WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
WHITEOUTS ARE OCCURRING ALONG NORTH-SOUTH ROADS ALONG WITH
DRIFTING SNOW WHERE SOME ROADS ARE DOWN TO ONE LANE, HOWEVER
ROADS ARE NOT CLOSED. WANT TO CONTINUE ADVERTISEMENT OF THE
TRAVEL THREAT ACRS OPEN AREAS WITH WIND ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE ELSEWHERE. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY, THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MAINE
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND GUST
40-50MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS
UP TO 55MPH. GOING TO WAIT ONE MORE UPDATE TO FIGURE OUT
POTENTIAL WIND HEADLINES SINCE WE HAVE ONGOING WINTER HEADLINES.
THESE WINDS ARE GOING TO CREATE DANGEROUS BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY. THE BLOWING
SNOW WILL BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AGRICULTURAL OPEN AREAS
OF AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES BY MID MORNING. BE
PREPARED FOR LOCALIZED WHITEOUTS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY
CREATING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. POTENTIALLY
IMPACTED ROADS INCLUDE BUT NOT LIMITED TO...ROUTES 1, 1A, 2, 10,
11, 89, 161, 163, 167 AND 212. FOR NOW KEEPING THE WINTER STORM
WARNING ACROSS THESE AREAS TO ADDRESS THE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS
AFTER THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ENDS. COMBINATION OF FALLING
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY MAKE THIS EVENT WORSE THAN THE
PREVIOUS BLOWING SNOW EVENT LAST WEEK. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE VERY
PRESENT ON THE PONDS/LAKES TODAY MAKING FOR NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY. THIS IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WITH THE RISK OF
PRESSURE RIDGES AND OTHER OBSTACLES ON THE ICE. SNOWMOBILES AND
ICE FISHING RECREATION NEED TO TAKE NOTE OF THE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS TODAY.
OTHERWISE, DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EXPECTING A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES WONT RECOVER
MUCH TODAY WITH STRONG CAA AND CLOUDS BUT EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE TEENS FOR BANGOR TO THE COAST AND POINTS NE UP ALONG I-95
THEN NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY. COLD SPOTS WILL BE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE MOOSEHEAD REGION AND NORTH
WOODS.
TONIGHT, BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE OPEN AREAS WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BUT EXPECTING SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE WINDS.
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL TANK AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE ZERO TO 5
BELOW ZERO FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/BANGOR REGION POINTS
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 ABOVE FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST BUT
THE VALLEYS DOWNEAST COULD DROP BELOW ZERO TOO. COLD
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY W WINDS WILL RESULT IN
VERY CHILLY WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF -33F TO -25F WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MOOSEHEAD REGION, NORTH
WOODS, ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE, IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO DOWNEAST COAST WILL SEE
WIND CHILLS -18F TO -10F THROUGHOUT THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F
ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE HOISTED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MOOSEHEAD REGION, NORTH WOODS, ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
AROOSTOOK COUNTY FROM 9PM TONIGHT TILL 9AM TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
CROWN OF MAINE, WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE
INCH. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS. 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C MEAN
ANOTHER COLD DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM MOOSEHEAD LAKE AND
KATAHDIN NORTH AND WEST THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST. SOME COLDER SPOTS COULD DROP BELOW
ZERO. THE AIR MASS MODERATES ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 20S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
HIGH WILL BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL NOT
CREST OVER THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN, FAR TO THE SOUTH OF MAINE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY,
SAVE FOR A FLURRY OR TWO ON THE OUTER ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONTINUES ACROSS AROOSTOOK TERMINALS IN LOW
CIGS AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. VSBYS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH AN OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
WEST WINDS 15-25KTS GUSTING TO 30-40KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CIGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH -SHSN. W-NW WINDS 5-15KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH LOW STRATUS. W WINDS 5-10KTS WEDNESDAY
BECOMING N 5-10KTS THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
FRIDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9AM THIS MORNING
TILL 9AM TUESDAY. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 35-45KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 55KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-17FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND
5-10FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AND THEREFORE A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF FREEZING SPRAY CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EASTERN MOST WATERS
TOWARDS THE HAGUE LINE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE,
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OUTER WATERS LIKELY SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD BACK ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. THE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY COULD CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001-002-
005-006.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ003-004-010-011-
015>017-029>032.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER/SINKO
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...BUSTER/SINKO/CLARK
MARINE...BUSTER/SINKO/CLARK
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