149
FXUS61 KCAR 172245
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE THE GUSTY WINDS
AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEEING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES
IN THE HOULTON AREA AT THIS HOUR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY THROUGH 1 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, TO ADDRESS
THE WIND AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY
OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BUT
STILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE INTO TUESDAY.
OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS, NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SUB-960MB LOW SITTING UP OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AS WELL AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 06Z. BY THIS TIME, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF BLOWING SNOW OVER OPEN FIELDS
ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND SYSTEM WILL DROP TEMPS TO BELOW ZERO
OVER THE NORTH WOODS AND AROUND ZERO ACROSS REMAINDER OF NRN
ZONES. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL APPROACH MINUS 35 OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER WITH -25 TO -30 MORE
COMMON DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT WIND CHILLS
TOUCHING -20 DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AREAS BY MORNING BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPAND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ANY FURTHER
SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TDA WITH H9
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER. IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECT THAT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT OVER THE
MARITIMES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROF DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SYSTEM
WILL REACH BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES, CAUSING A VORT WAX TO SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE
TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER
POSSIBLY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAXING THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW W WINDS
TO DECREASE. CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE TROF SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DECREASING
W WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IN THE
MORNING, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR IN THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING, THEN CLEAR IN THE NORTH BY
THE EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS ON THE MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE MIDWEST WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS SHOULD BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION, THOUGH RH
MODELS SHOWS THESE AS MAINLY LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY THURSDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE JUST SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS DOWNEAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION, MAKING FOR A FAIRLY INACTIVE PERIOD.
EXPECT TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY AND CALMER AT NIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT INCONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS GIVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
PROCEED. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NBM AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS IN LOW CIGS AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
SNOW INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 06Z THROUGH TUESDAY. KBGR/KBHB WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. W WIND 15 TO 25 KT WITH 35 TO 40 KT,
THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CIGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH -SHSN. W-NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
WED-THUR...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5-10KTS WEDNESDAY BECOMING N
THURSDAY.
THUR NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS FRIDAY.
SAT...VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 5 TO 14 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
DECREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO
SCA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SVA LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001-002-
005-006.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ003-004-010-011-
015>017-029>032.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER/TWD
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH
LONG TERM...LAFLASH
AVIATION...BUSTER/TWD/LAFLASH
MARINE...BUSTER/TWD/LAFLASH
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