866
FXUS61 KCAR 180838
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
338 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WHICH
IS THE WORST OVER OPEN AREAS OF NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE STORM
AND HAS RESULTED IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. WIND IS JUST AS STRONG
FURTHER SOUTH, BUT DUE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, THE SNOWPACK
IS LESS BLOWABLE. FOR THE NORTH, THIS HAS BEEN AN EVENT WITH
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO THE MAGNITUDE WE SEE ABOUT ONCE PER
SEASON. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF BLOWING/DRIFTING GOING
ON IN NORTHERN AREAS, NOT AS EXTREME AS IT WAS THANKFULLY. WE
HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW GOING UNTIL
7AM FOR NORTHEAST AREAS, WHICH IS LATER THAN THE ORIGINAL
EXPIRATION TIME OF 1AM. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEFINITELY INDICATE
DECREASING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM 6 TO 9AM, AND THINK
THAT THE BLOWING/DRIFTING WILL GO DOWN A TICK BY MID- MORNING.
THAT SAID, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL
TODAY, AND WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, BUT
TRAVEL WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAY AND AT
PRESENT. BLOWING/DRIFTING SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL AFTER DARK
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
WIND CHILLS...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
AND RAISED TEMPERATURES FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 8AM A FEW
DEGREES. STILL NEED THE ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE NORTH,
BUT WIND CHILLS ARE LOOKING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD THOUGH, ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH. WIND CHILLS EASILY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL AND OTHER WEATHER...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MAINE, BUT IT'S EXTREMELY HARD TO TELL IF IT'S SNOWING OUT VS
JUST THE EXISTING SNOW BLOWING AROUND. EITHER WAY, ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED IN, WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY
IN THE NORTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TODAY, BUT A BIT OF WARM
ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY A SMALL DROPOFF IN
TEMPS, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 0 TO 10 ABOVE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DEEP LAYERED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE ARE
SOME MODELS THAT TRY TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NBM SHOWS CLOSE TO ZERO POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, SO DID ADJUST POPS UPWARD TO SHOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN RELATIVELY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. FOR NOW, WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND THEN
PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
FROM HUL NORTH, THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS CONTINUING TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY FROM PQI NORTH, WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BGR/BHB VFR
TONIGHT, BUT STILL BREEZY FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
STILL COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT NORTHERN SITES, BUT THINK
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE 6 SM OR BETTER. GENERALLY
VFR TUESDAY, THOUGH CEILINGS COULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 3000
FT AGL AND COULD LEAD TO MVFR AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE DAY DOWNEAST, INCLUDING BHB AND BGR. W
WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT, W WINDS EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH FEWER GUSTS.
GENERALLY VFR BGR/BHB, BUT TOUGH CALL ON MVFR VS VFR HUL NORTH
DUE TO THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING AND STORM WARNING EARLY
TODAY, BUT WINDS GRADUALLY EASE DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT. WIND REMAINS FROM THE W/NW. SEAS EASE FROM AROUND
10 FT EARLY TODAY TO 5 FT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKLEY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-
002-005-006.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...TWD
LONG TERM...TWD
AVIATION...FOISY/TWD
MARINE...FOISY/TWD
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