928
FXUS61 KCAR 190541
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1241 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1215AM UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM PRESQUE ISLE TO HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET, AND
RAISED POPS NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THAT SAID,
SNOW IS REALLY LIGHT AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A HALF INCH
OR LESS. OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. EXCEPTION IS LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS, WHERE LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT MILLINOCKET. RAISED TEMPS A TOUCH
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS IT'S ONLY COOLING DOWN VERY SLOWLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE E
OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE LINGERING
TROF ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL SINK THE VORT MAX FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL PULL ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TROF
CONTINUING TO SINK ACROSS THE SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
FOR THE DAY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH FOR THE DAY. THE 925MB MODEL TEMPS SHOW THE TROF SINKING
AS WELL WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS COMING FROM THE NE. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY, KEEPING
WEATHER DRY AND WINDS LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY, AND PASS THE FORECAST AREA WELL TO THE
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN THE
DEEPENING LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
AREA THAT KEEPS THE LOW AT BAY, AND THIS TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH, TAPPING INTO MOISTURE FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE TO BRING
POTENTIALLY A LIGHT COATING TO THE NORTH WOODS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FULL CONTROL OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS ACROSS GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO WHEN
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT IN A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT CROSSING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THAT SAID, THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXACT TIMING STILL VARY BETWEEN MODELS. BEHIND THAT, A MORE
ROBUST, POTENTIALLY OCCLUDING LOW COULD CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION, AS SEEN FROM DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. ANOTHER
SOLUTION FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT
MOVES NORTHWARDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, JUST EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, AS SEEN ON THE DETERMINISTIC CMC THE LAST COUPLE
OF RUNS. AT THIS POINT, ALL THAT CAN BE SAID IS THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH TERMINALS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. W WINDS
5-15 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
THURS - THURS NIGHT: LIGHT W TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10
KTS LATE. VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
FRI: MOSTLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS.
FRI NIGHT - SAT NIGHT: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
DIMINISHING, BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN: VFR/MVFR, THOUGH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY DEVELOPING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNINGS WERE TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS AS THE WIND HAS DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING. THE GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS, AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BY VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FREEZING SPRAY WILL DECREASE
AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM: LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND NW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS WILL
INCREASE, GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...CB/FOISY/LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
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