636
FXUS61 KCAR 191509
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
10 AM UPDATE: CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOUND
WITHIN THIS CLOUD DECK. OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
EARLY THIS MORNING...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN NORTHERN MAINE. THEY AREN'T
AMOUNTING TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY BREEZE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAD TWO DAYS AGO, BUT IT'S STILL ENOUGH FOR A WEST WIND 5-15
MPH. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, IN PLACES SUCH AS MILLINOCKET WHICH HAS
BEEN RECORDING INTERMITTENT GUSTS 25-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
SEASONAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY 5-10 ABOVE ZERO.
TODAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY FROM THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WEST BREEZE 5-15 MPH, AND A FEW
INCONSEQUENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. NOT
EXPECTING ANY MORE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES EXCEPT PERHAPS
SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES NEAR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DOWNEAST
AREAS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY VS
THE NORTH. EVEN IN THE NORTH THOUGH, EXPECT A BIT OF SUN
PEEKING THROUGH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
TONIGHT...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, BUT STILL A BIT OF
A LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DOWNEAST. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT,
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. LOWS 0-10 ABOVE, THOUGH EXACT
READINGS ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS WITH THE PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND A BIT
OF A BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL TROFFING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE
AN LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY CLIP THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS, EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT
CROSSING QUEBEC PROVINCE LATE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES SATURDAY, WITH CLOUDS THEN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. COULD ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
MONDAY, WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MONDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF SNOW TUESDAY, THOUGH RAIN COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW
DOWNEAST. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. NEAR
NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR SOUTH TODAY, WITH MVFR CIGS IN
NORTHERN MAINE FROM HUL/MLT NORTH THIS MORNING. W WIND AROUND
10 KTS TODAY. TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR, THOUGH STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
INTERMITTENT MVFR IN THE NORTH. LIGHT W BREEZE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL MVFR
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS,
BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR EARLY. VFR/MVFR LATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATE NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY
NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW
5 FT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW ROGUE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO NEAR THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF,
BUT THIS TOO WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/FOISY/NORCROSS
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