330
FXUS61 KCAR 200624
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
124 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFING PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT,
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO AROUND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT WHILE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE FROM BGR SOUTH
AND EAST TO THE DOWNEAST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH KEEPING LOWS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORING SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SPAWNS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THIS LOW MOVING NORTH AND EAST TO A
LOCATION SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY REMAINING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ON THE FORECAST AREA. INSTEAD, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH FROM TO
THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND NOT TOO FAR
OFF OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS ON THURSDAY REACHING THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER LOWS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, ESP SOUTH WHERE READINGS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE
TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* NO WIDESPREAD HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WINDS
EARLIER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVOR AN INCREASING PACIFIC
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
RELENTS /+NAO/ WITH LESS CENTRAL PACIFIC BLOCKING /+EPO/
ALLOWING MORE PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. OUR WEATHER
WILL BE DOMINATED BY FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES IN THE WNW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LONG TERM FORECAST OPENS WITH
SEASONABLE...TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY, BUT
THEN TEMPERATURES MOVE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE
FREEZING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO NEAR 40F BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT, THEN VFR THURSDAY.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL MVFR
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS,
BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY. VFR/MVFR LATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATE NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY
NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO
10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NECESSITATE SCAS WITH WINDS/WAVE SUBSIDING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARDS
THE WATERS. HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CLARK
MARINE...NORCROSS/CLARK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page