138
FXUS61 KCAR 201154
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY, THEN EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY, STALLING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS, MOSTLY
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE TODAY, THEN EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. ALOFT, THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW APPROACHES TODAY, THEN CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH, PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY DOWNEAST, TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THE OCEAN LOW COULD CLIP THE DOWNEAST COAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. COULD ALSO HAVE
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 20S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DOWNEAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOWER TEENS NORTH, TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY, THEN
EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY, WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES SATURDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH A FEW
STRAY FLURRIES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD
IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS SHOULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH, CLOSEST TO THE
STRONGEST DYNAMICS. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AT MOST A DUSTING. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE AND THE BANGOR REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY, THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED NBM POPS BY BLENDING IN
CONSALL. SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY REGION ON NORTH
SUNDAY POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SAINT JOHNS VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING, OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY.
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY, SO IT SHOULD BE DRY.
A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, MID ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT, SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ON TUESDAY, WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW,
THEN A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY.
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS,
VFR/MVFR THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY-SATURDAY EVENING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WSW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...BECOME VFR THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS STARTING
AT 10 PM TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING, THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY, SO
HAVE AN SCA UP THEN. THE SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CURRENTLY LACK THE REQUIRED 80 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO THIS TIME FRAME. SCA
CONDITIONS COULD THEN CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS, BUT AM
EVEN LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS, AT THIS TIME. GUSTS TO AROUND
25KT COULD ALSO CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERS BY THEN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY-MONDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MALOIT
MARINE...NORCROSS/MALOIT
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