463
FXUS61 KCAR 202114
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
414 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY, STALLING TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO OUR SOUTH, SO THERE
MAY ONLY BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT FROM WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF THE ST. LAWRENCE.
NO/VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, INDICATING GOOD
CHANCES FOR OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT, STAYING RELATIVELY IN THE
TEENS UP NORTH AND IN THE LOW 20S DOWN SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW, BRINGING A GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAUSING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TOMORROW, AS A RESULT,
ADDED IN SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW IN NORTHERN COUNTIES
DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEW SNOW, OR FLUFFY SNOW ON TOP OF
EXISTING SNOW PACK TO BLOW AROUND. EXPECTING THERE TO BE MORE
DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS, AS OPPOSED TO REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM
LOFTED SNOW. ON FRIDAY, SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING
THE DAY, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID-20S TO LOW
30S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE
LOW RETREATS TO THE EAST, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY WON'T BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT WILL
FINALLY RELAX A LITTLE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES MORE
OVERHEAD, DECREASING THE WINDS. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING
HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR DOWNEAST, AND IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE A
LOW QPF EVENT, WITH RESULTING SNOWFALL AROUND AN INCH. NBM IS
NOT HANDLING THESE WEAK TROUGHS VERY WELL, SO THE CONSALL BLEND
WAS USED TO BETTER PORTRAY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF STORMS
MOVES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST STORM CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, PROVIDING A TRACK MORE LIKELY TO BRING WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION THAN THE PAST FEW STORMS HAVE SEEN. THIS
WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
AS NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE,
OR WHETHER IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OR JUST
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KFVE: VFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR CEILINGS BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. WINDS FROM THE NW 5-10 KTS UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING. TOMORROW, NW WINDS AT 10-15KTS, WITH 20-25KT GUSTS.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY EVENING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WSW WINDS 10 TO 15KTS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. W-SW WINDS 10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. S WIND 10KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SNOW, MIXING WITH
RAIN FROM S TO N TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGIN LATER TONIGHT,
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
THIS EVENING OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
INTER-COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO SEE 1-3 FT SEAS, AND OUTER
WATERS ARE FORECAST TO SEE 3-5 FT SEAS TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN FALL BELOW 25 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...BRENNAN/LF
MARINE...BRENNAN/LF
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