331
FXUS61 KCAR 210642
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
142 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY, STALLING TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT,
WITH A SURFACE TROF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MOSTLY THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15
NORTH, TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED
TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW, BRINGING A
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TOMORROW,
AS A RESULT, ADDED IN SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEW SNOW, OR FLUFFY
SNOW ON TOP OF EXISTING SNOW PACK TO BLOW AROUND. EXPECTING
THERE TO BE MORE DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS, AS OPPOSED TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM LOFTED SNOW. ON FRIDAY, SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
MID-20S TO LOW 30S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE
LOW RETREATS TO THE EAST, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY WON'T BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW COULD BE EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT WILL
FINALLY RELAX A LITTLE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES MORE
OVERHEAD, DECREASING THE WINDS. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING
HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR DOWNEAST, AND IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE A
LOW QPF EVENT, WITH RESULTING SNOWFALL AROUND AN INCH. NBM IS
NOT HANDLING THESE WEAK TROUGHS VERY WELL, SO THE CONSALL BLEND
WAS USED TO BETTER PORTRAY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF STORMS
MOVES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST STORM CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, PROVIDING A TRACK MORE LIKELY TO BRING WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION THAN THE PAST FEW STORMS HAVE SEEN. THIS
WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
AS NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE,
OR WHETHER IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OR JUST
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, THEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY EVENING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WSW WINDS 10 TO 15KTS SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. W-SW WINDS 10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. S WIND 10KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SNOW, MIXING WITH
RAIN FROM S TO N TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN FALL BELOW 25 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...NORCROSS/LF
MARINE...NORCROSS/LF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page