760
FXUS61 KCAR 211454
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
954 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN STALLS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
QUEBEC SUNDAY, BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGINS TO
SLOWLY CROSS MAINE ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:45AM UPDATE...UPDATED SKIES TO MATCH SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.
LITTLE BIT OF VORTICITY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT MAY BE HELPING
IN THE CLEARING THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RISE IN AREAS WITH
NO CLOUD COVER, SO ADJUSTED FORECAST TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS.
STILL EXPECTING NORTH TO BECOME PARTIALLY CLOUDY BY THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN VORTICITY DWINDLES AND NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, AS MANY SPOTS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST REGION HAVE SEEN A FEW FLURRIES FALL THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS BEGIN TO PICK UP, SO PATCHY BLOWING / DRIFTING SNOW
IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NORTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO
POSSIBLE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH EXPECTED. THESE WINDS COULD SUPPORT PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS MOSTLY AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES TODAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS EXPOSED TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH, MOSTLY CLEAR
DOWNEAST, TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH,
TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE NORTH, TO AROUND 5 ABOVE
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSES SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER, BUT THE LOW LEVELS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
THIS IS FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN EXITING TO THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN CROSSES THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH EXPECTED, WITH MANY AREAS ONLY SEEING A DUSTING.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR TO UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, IT
SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FINISHES BUILDING OVER THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING, THEN EXISTS TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT,
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH ARE JUST PLAIN RAIN NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
TUESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO A LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE AND THE BANGOR/UPPER PENOBSCOT REGION, WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN PENOBSCOT, SOUTHERN PISCATIQUIS
AND EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES, WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME, AT MOST MINOR, IF ANY IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS LIGHT SNOWFALL.
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT,
THEN PASSES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL DETERMINE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM (ECMWF) OR NOT (GFS/CMC). THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN COLD AIR COMING BACK INTO THE
REGION SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND MORE SNOW THAN RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW, LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS/CMC AS SO FAR THIS WINTER NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING
HAS NOT WORKED OUT FOR THIS REGION, EXCEPT FOR IN A COUPLE OF
INSTANCES THAT WERE WELL AGREED UPON THE MODELS, UNLIKE THIS
ONE. SO EXPECT MAINLY RAINSHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS (OR A MIX) NEAR THE COAST, LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOTE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS, SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, MORE THAN LIKELY
AS RAIN SHOWERS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO IT SHOULD BE
DRY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND NORTHEAST
AROOSTOOK, AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY-THURSDAY, WITH THE MILDEST DAYS BEING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES THIS MORNING, THEN
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW NORTH TODAY. VFR
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS TODAY. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING...VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH, VFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. W-WNW WINDS G15KT
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. S-SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. LLWS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING, THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN ALL WATERS AGAIN SHOULD SEE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BRENNAN/NORCROSS/MALOIT
MARINE...BRENNAN/NORCROSS/MALOIT
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