065
FXUS61 KCAR 220204
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
904 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT,
THEN STALLS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH QUEBEC SUNDAY, BEFORE
DISSIPATING SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE AREA. THIS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CROSS MAINE ON
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
9:04 PM UPDATE: SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A CLEAR SKY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES.
THERE ARE OTHER BANDS OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, EXPECT A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY
SOUTH AND MORE VARIABILITY IN THE CLOUD COVER NORTH WHERE THE
SKY AT TIMES COULD BE CLEAR AND AT OTHER TIMES CLOUDY. THE
CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY BETWEEN 2-3K FEET AGL BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT FRENCHVILLE AND GREENVILLE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE SKY GRIDS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, CENTERING OVER
MAINE ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND THEY SEEM TO BE FUNNELING
THROUGH SOME OF THE TERRAIN AND CAUSING SOME HIGHER WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND BANGOR REGION. SNOW ON TOP
OF SNOW BERMS CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND INT THE FORECAST REGION,
PREDOMINANTLY IN OPEN FIELDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. MAY ONLY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, AND DRIFTING SNOW
ALONG GROUNDS. BE MINDFUL IF TRAVELING ON ROADS NEAR OPEN
AREAS.
THERE IS GOOD LIFT PARAMETERS IN THE LOW-LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY A GOOD EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE
BOUNDARY, GOOD FRONTOGENESIS, AND OMEGA, OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF THE LOW
LEVELS, BUT INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES IN THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT IN CASE SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS PRODUCE SOME FLAKES.
LITTLE-TO-NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM THIS.
SKIES STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW
CLOUDS CREEPING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. WITH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REGION BEING CLEAR, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING
TO OCCUR, BUT GIVEN THE ELEVATED WINDS, SIDED IN FAVOR OF NO
DECOUPLING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
EVERYWHERE, WITH WINDCHILL BETWEEN 0 AND -10. TOMORROW, EXPECT
SKIES TO STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
IN THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
VERY BRIEF S/WV RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A COLD FRONT BACK OVER WRN QUEBEC. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. POPS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NRN ZONES WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE U20/NR 30 NORTH OF KATAHDIN TO LOWER 30S OVER DOWNEAST.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF. WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AT SOME POINT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST LATE. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEPER S/WV MOVES THROUGH IN THE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR. LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW FALLING IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AREA IS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. H9 TEMPS WARM TOWARD 0C OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND HIGH TEMPS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S OVER MOST AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTHWEST ZONES. GFS BRINGS SFC LOW QUICKLY INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CMC/EC KEEPING IT MORE TOWARD EVENING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK HAVE SIDED WITH NBM FOR POPS
AND TEMPS. GFS TRACKS THE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH EC TRACKING
A WEAK LOW ALONG THE COAST AND CMC TAKING IT THRU THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THURSDAY
BEFORE DROPPING BACK TOWARD NORMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
PATTERN GETS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS GFS AND EC HAS TROF DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHEAST WITH LATEST CMC CLOSING UPR LOW OFF OVER THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SNOW/RAIN TO DRY WEATHER
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH CHANCE AFTER
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KFVE AND KCAR AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS KPQI. VFR EXPECTED AT THE OTHER FORECAST
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. NW WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY
WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SHOW SHOWERS. VFR
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. SW 5-10KTS GUSTING TO 15KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WNW BECOMING S 5-10KTS MONDAY
MORNING.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. LLWS POSSIBLE. S 5-
15KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT W BECOMING
NW 5-10KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A NORTHWEST WIND IS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
AT THE BUOYS SO THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS FINE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX
A BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED A BIT LONGER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: MARGINAL WEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3-4 FEET. HEADLINES ARE
NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS MARGINAL
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN/CB
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...BRENNAN/CB/BUSTER
MARINE...BRENNAN/CB/BUSTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page