287
FXUS61 KCAR 220625
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
125 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT,
THEN STALLS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH QUEBEC SUNDAY, BEFORE
DISSIPATING SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE AREA. THIS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGINS TO SLOWLY CROSS MAINE ON
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH, TO AROUND 10 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH 10 TO 15 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, CENTERING OVER
MAINE ON SATURDAY. TOMORROW, EXPECT SKIES TO STAY RELATIVELY
CLEAR IN THE SOUTH AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST REGION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
VERY BRIEF S/WV RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A COLD FRONT BACK OVER WRN QUEBEC. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. POPS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NRN ZONES WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE U20/NR 30 NORTH OF KATAHDIN TO LOWER 30S OVER DOWNEAST.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF. WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AT SOME POINT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST LATE. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEPER S/WV MOVES THROUGH IN THE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR. LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW FALLING IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AREA IS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. H9 TEMPS WARM TOWARD 0C OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND HIGH TEMPS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S OVER MOST AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTHWEST ZONES. GFS BRINGS SFC LOW QUICKLY INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CMC/EC KEEPING IT MORE TOWARD EVENING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK HAVE SIDED WITH NBM FOR POPS
AND TEMPS. GFS TRACKS THE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH EC TRACKING
A WEAK LOW ALONG THE COAST AND CMC TAKING IT THRU THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THURSDAY
BEFORE DROPPING BACK TOWARD NORMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
PATTERN GETS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS GFS AND EC HAS TROF DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHEAST WITH LATEST CMC CLOSING UPR LOW OFF OVER THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SNOW/RAIN TO DRY WEATHER
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH CHANCE AFTER
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. VFR DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT. VFR REGIONWIDE
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SHOW SHOWERS. VFR
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. SW 5-10KTS GUSTING TO 15KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WNW BECOMING S 5-10KTS MONDAY
MORNING.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. LLWS POSSIBLE. S 5-
15KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT W BECOMING
NW 5-10KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ALL THE
WATERS THROUGH 5 AM, WHICH MIGHT NEED EXTENDING. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: MARGINAL WEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3-4 FEET. HEADLINES ARE
NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS MARGINAL
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BUSTER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BUSTER
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