427
FXUS61 KCAR 270234
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THEN MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY EVENING, THEN
CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN NOSES IN FROM
CANADA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRACK TO THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
10 PM UPDATE: SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION
TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARDS FREEZING WHICH WILL
CAUSE THESE SHOWERS TO SWITCH TO SNOW. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
THE TROUGH TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH WOODS.
HOWEVER, THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
MOVE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM THE LOW TOWARDS MAINE AND THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GENERATE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
TONIGHT. MEASURABLE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
DUE TO THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN WASHINGTON
COUNTY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS EVENING.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THAT COULD
RESULT IN FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LIGHT, BUT FORECAST CLOUD COVER
DISSUADES US FROM SPECIFYING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION FOR
FREEZING FOG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30F.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE THURSDAY FOR
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF STRATOCUMULUS
AND CUMULUS FIELDS. SOME DOWNSLOPING TOWARDS BANGOR AND
ELLSWORTH MAY PRODUCE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN WILL BE
SEEN FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND MAY HELP GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT
WILL HELP PRODUCE CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER 925/850MB TEMPS, EXPECT THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS TO
BE SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
BRIEF RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH MAINE WOODS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 20S FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40S NORTH AND LOWER 40S FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE, A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS EAST. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA MAY BE MORE DOMINANT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 20S FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST.
SATURDAYS FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED SPREAD SNOW INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN, IF THE DRIER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
DOMINATES, THEN THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER
SOUTH. AT THIS POINT, THINK AT LEAST NORTHERN AROOSTOOK MAY
WELL STAY PRECIPITATION FREE MUCH OF SATURDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS SATURDAY TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME, WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL OVERRUN THE COLDER LOW LEVEL
AIR. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING SUNDAY,
WITH SNOW LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO A WINTRY MIX AND FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST
INTO MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN FOR BANGOR AND
DOWNEAST BY AFTERNOON. BUT FREEZING RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING TO SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE SHAPING UP AS MAINLY DRY DAYS, AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. AFTERNOON HIGHS EARLY TO MID
WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN ANY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS THE CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, BECOMING FREEZING FOG AS TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND CONFIDENCE IN FZFG AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SHOULD CIGS SCT MORE
OVERNIGHT, FZFG COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FOR THURSDAY, INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB, AND MVFR/VFR CIGS TO PERSIST MUCH
OF THE DAY NORTH OF HUL AND GNR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT
ARE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM:
THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR LATE IN SNOW SHOWERS
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. LIGHT WIND.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING SNOW SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR. W
TO NW WIND.
FRI NIGHT...VFR NORTH. MVFR WITH CHANCE SNOW KBGR/KBHB. LIGHT
NW WIND.
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VFR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. MVFR OR LOWER
KBGR/KBHB. CHANCE SNOW. LIGHT N WIND.
SUN THROUGH MON...IFR. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS DO PICK UP THURSDAY, BUT DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER
SCA. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, BUT NOT
IN GREAT NUMBER.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY THEN
APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
ICE OUT IS ONGOING FOR MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.
RIVER ICE IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
THIS WEEK.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED UPRIVER FROM WASHBURN AT THE
AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/MCW
SHORT TERM...TWD
LONG TERM...TWD
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/MCW/TWD
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/MCW/TWD
HYDROLOGY...ASTRAUSER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page