318
FXUS61 KCAR 271726
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
126 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL
TROUGH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TO SOME
AREAS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND SKY THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL FORECAST STILL MAINLY ON
TRACK.
SEE UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT,
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH, WITH UP TO ABOUT A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THE AIRMASS LOOKS UNSTABLE AND THERE
COULD BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY
IN THE NORTH. DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE QUITE ENOUGH WIND FOR SNOW
SQUALLS, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE. ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 30S NORTH TO LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST. LATE IN THE NIGHT, AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
COULD BEGIN TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM GREENVILLE TO BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR.
SATURDAY...
THE CONCERN FOR SATURDAY IS HOW FAR NORTH A SYSTEM PASSING FROM
WEST TO EAST TO OUR SOUTH CAN MAKE IT. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHAT WILL BE FAIRLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WENT A BIT ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND FAVORED THE
FURTHER SOUTH/DRIER EC/EPS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING JUST 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY LINCOLN SOUTH AND NOTHING FURTHER
NORTH. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO AROUND
6 INCHES MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS GREENVILLE/BANGOR/BAR HARBOR.
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. DON'T THINK THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO OUR FORECAST AREA, AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW. FAR SW MAINE PROBABLY WON'T BE SO LUCKY.
FOR CLOUDCOVER FOR THE ECLIPSE JUST AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, IT'S
LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY FROM MILLINOCKET SOUTH. HOWEVER,
THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS. IT'S UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE SUN TO BE VISIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM KICKS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCES
ITSELF. COLD AND GENERALLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AS CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING PRECIP FROM
SATURDAY'S SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE WHOLE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A SNOW
TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN TRANSITION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES EITHER OVER NORTHERN
MAINE OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS, THE LOW TRACK, AND TIMING.
HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE AN IMPACTFUL
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
EXCEED A QUARTER INCH. MOST LIKELY THIS WOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. WE ARE USUALLY HESITANT TO PUT FREEZING RAIN INTO
THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SO UNUSUALLY HIGH
THAT WE HAVE PUT IT IN. IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS,
EVEN THE FAR NORTH, WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY LATE MONDAY. THE
TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE ICE FROM
BEING HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE A LOT OF POWER OUTAGES.
FAIRLY QUIET, COOL WEATHER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TOWARD
THURSDAY AS THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 09Z,
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT THE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KFVE/KCAR. MAINLY VFR KBGR/KBHB
WITH POSSIBLE VICINITY SNOW SHOWERS. W TO NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT,
BECOMING LIGHT S AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY TERMINALS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS. NW WIND WITH G 25 KT.
SHORT TERM:
FRI NIGHT...VFR NORTH. VFR EARLY BGR/BHB, THEN MVFR OR IFR
POSSIBLE AFTER 8Z WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
LIGHT NW WIND.
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VFR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE BGR/BHB WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. LIGHT
WIND.
SUN THROUGH MON...VFR EARLY SUNDAY, DETERIORATING TO IFR FROM SW
TO NE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN, THEN TO RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR
THIS FAR OUT FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT MOST TAF SITES AT
SOME POINT LATE SUN TO EARLY MON. LLWS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT W TODAY AND LIGHT SW TONIGHT.
SEAS UP TO 4 FT TODAY AND 3 FT TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.
SHORT TERM: LOW END SMALL CRAFT W WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY, BUT HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. WINDS SHIFT TO
E/NE FOR THE WEEKEND AND GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT.
SEAS HOWEVER COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON SUNDAY, AND SMALL
CRAFT WINDS/SEAS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE S/SE.
HYDROLOGY
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
ICE OUT IS ONGOING FOR MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.
RIVER ICE IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
THIS WEEK.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED UPRIVER FROM WASHBURN AT THE
AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE. HOWEVER, LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT THAT THE WATER NEAR
GARDNER CREEK HAS RECEDED.
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/TWD
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...BLOOMER/TWD/FOISY
MARINE...BLOOMER/TWD/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page