248
FXUS61 KCAR 281158
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
758 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
8 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTH A LITTLE LONGER.
HIRES GUIDANCE ALONG WITH 06Z NAM IS SHOWING SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER LIGHTING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRONT IS CURRENTLY
JUST GETTING INTO THE STATE FROM QUEBEC AND WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IF MIXING ALONG THE FRONT CAN TAP
INTO THE 25KTS AT H8 WITH FROPA THEN SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IT IS SUCH A SMALL WINDOW AND THE TIMING HAS
TO BE PERFECT THAT CONFIDENCE IS AT ABOUT 30% OF THIS HAPPENING.
PARAMETER IS LIGHTING UP FROM MARS HILL AND POINTS NORTH SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EFFECT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE
FRONT COMBINED WITH A BIT OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH
LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS OF THE FAR NORTH.
THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA BEGINS PUSHING IN. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NUDGING INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A
SHALLOW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR AREA. THIS APPROACHING LOW HAS NO APPRECIABLE
SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AND IS BASICALLY A NARROW LINE OF
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE COLD HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE NORTH WILL HAVE A CLEAR SKY
MIX WITH SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE A
THICKER LAYER OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 10 OVER THE FAR NORTH UNDER THE SURFACE
RIDGING, TO THE LOW TO MID 20S DOWNEAST WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SYSTEM EARLY SATURDAY, BUT MODELS
ARE COMING INTO LINE ON THE LIGHTER SOLUTION FOR SNOWFALL, WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR AREA, IF IT MAKES IT
THAT FAR NORTH/EAST AT ALL. BACKED OFF ON SNOW TOTALS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. GOING FOR LIKELY POPS AND 1-2.5 INCHES OF
SNOW FROM GREENVILLE TO BANGOR TO BAR HARBOR, WITH NO SNOW OVER
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
EARLY SATURDAY ECLIPSE...
VIEWING FOR THE ECLIPSE JUST AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY LOOKS POOR
FROM MILLINOCKET SOUTHWEST, BUT LOOKS GOOD THE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST YOU GO, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IT IN NE
AROOSTOOK. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN NE
AROOSTOOK, BUT ODDS FAVOR THEM BEING THIN AND ABLE TO BE SEEN
THROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE AREA AROUND BANGOR/BAR HARBOR, BUT GENERALLY LOOKING DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LOOKS QUITE CHILLY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, WITH SOME COOLER
VALLEYS IN THE NORTH GETTING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS AROUND
20 DOWNEAST.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SLEET/ICE EVENT IS OUR CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY, WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT IN WESTERLY
FLOW OVERRUNNING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT LOW-LEVELS. A VERY GOOD
SETUP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, AND HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE
HIGHLANDS. THE PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION ISN'T OVERLY
HEAVY, THOUGH, WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS IN CHECK
AND FROM BEING TOO BAD. MOST PLACES WILL SEE A SNOW TO SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MAIN
CONCERN IS FOR THE ICE, WHICH COULD TOP A TENTH OF AN INCH. THAT
SAID, THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH PRECIP FOR ICE TO BE AT ICE-STORM
LEVELS, AND THINK THAT TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER
INCH WHICH WOULD KEEP POWER OUTAGES ISSUES MOSTLY AT BAY. THINK
THAT ALMOST ALL THE AREA WILL GET SOME ICE, EXCEPT PERHAPS
IMMEDIATE COASTAL DOWNEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE WARM FRONT
PASSES AND WE FINALLY GET A GOOD SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WARM AIR, AND
EVERYWHERE GOES TO PLAIN RAIN BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO SOAR TO AROUND 50 FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WE COOL BACK DOWN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DRY AND COOL WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.
THURSDAY...
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE IN THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
ALL SORTS OF SOLUTIONS, SOME WITH ALL RAIN, SOME WITH ALMOST
ALL SNOW, AND MANY WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN, DEPENDING ON IF
THE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST PASSES TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH.
ONE THING THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY DO
HAVE A SYSTEM OF SOME SORT FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR
OVER THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TODAY, THEN NW AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH IT COULD START OUT MVFR FOR
BGR/BHB WITH LIGHT SNOW, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SYSTEM. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR BGR/BHB. LIGHT N WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...BECOMING IFR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING, AND REMAINING IFR FOR MOST AREAS INTO MONDAY.
MOST PLACES WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. E WIND 5-10 KTS BECOMING S 10-15 KTS LATE
MONDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
WIND SWITCHING FROM S TO W MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TO NW
10-20 KTS ON TUESDAY. IFR IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MAINLY VFR TUESDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SCA WILL BE NEEDED TODAY FOR WNW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25 KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT TODAY, SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH A S WIND SWITCHING TO NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GALES
POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT MONDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BUT
ARE NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR STRUCTURES. ANY IMPACTS ARE LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BANKS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. RIVER
ICE IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED LIMITED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL DECAY OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER FROM
WASHBURN AT THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER OF FORT
FAIRFIELD NEAR THE FORT FAIRFIELD AND CARIBOU TOWN LINE. WATER
LEVELS HAVE FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL AS ICE DECAYS. MINOR SHIFTS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOW
LYING FLOODING BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/BUSTER
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...BLOOMER/BUSTER/FOISY
MARINE...BLOOMER/BUSTER/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...
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