947
FXUS61 KCAR 282251
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
651 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND TRACK NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
645 PM UPDATE...VERY DRY AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND ADJUSTED DEW POINTS DOWNWARD. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FLAT UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WAVE MARKS THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN A WARM, HUMID AIR MASS AND COLD,
DRY CANADIAN AIR. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENTS EXIST NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE, BUT IN THE MID LEVELS. PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SNOW EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY RETREATS
SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, AN INCH OR TWO
IS EXPECTED FOR BANGOR AND COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS
ARE WELL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
DEWPOINTS, GUSTY NW WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MOVING INTO CWA IN THE
WAKE OF FROPA. 1028MB SFC HIGH STRETCHED ACRS NORTHERN CANADA WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TWD NRN HALF OF CWA AS OF 19Z TODAY. WARM FRONT
IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SRN ONTARIO.
BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WHILE SHOWERS IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NRN AREAS TONIGHT, KEEPING THE
WARM FRONT CONFINED TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE DROPPED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR SWRN ZONES AS DRY AIR WILL TEND TO HOLD ON LONGER THAN PRIOR
FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE BANGOR REGION AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ONLY LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED SO TOTAL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1-1.5 INCHES
ALONG AND SOUTH AND WEST OF A MOOSEHEAD TO BAR HARBOR LINE.
CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OVER SRN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY KEEP NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS BUT ECLIPSE WILL PEAK APPROXIMATELY 4 MINUTES AFTER SUNRISE,
WITH 88% OF THE SUN ECLIPSED.
FOR SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER SWRN ZONES BUT SFC HIGH
WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN AND PUSHING SNOW OUT
OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTH AROUND 30 AND OVER DOWNEAST RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A SLEET/ICE EVENT IS OUR CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT OVERRUNNING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT LOW-LEVELS. THE SETUP
IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR COLD-AIR DAMMING WITH EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. EXPECT A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET, THEN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY PLAIN RAIN. USED THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS AND
NAM DURING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT HELD ON TO
THE COLD AIR A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE AS THE MODELS OFTEN
ERODE THE CAD TOO QUICKLY. EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN
THE 0.1-0.25" RANGE. THERE ISN'T ENOUGH PRECIP FOR ICE TO BE AT
ICE STORM LEVELS, AND WITH TOTALS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER
INCH THIS SHOULD KEEP POWER OUTAGE ISSUES MOSTLY AT BAY.
INSTEAD THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS. THINK
THAT ALMOST ALL THE AREA WILL GET SOME ICE, EXCEPT PERHAPS
IMMEDIATE COASTAL DOWNEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN,
AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW TAPERING OFF SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS A HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW, A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME BLUSTERY NW WINDS ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WINDS DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS GROWING
POTENTIAL IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND THUS IT IS
TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE ANY ICING THREAT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
645 PM UPDATE...VFR WITH EXCELLENT VIS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT A FEW HOURS OF IFR VIS IN SNOW FOR BGR AND BHB
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS WITH CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS LIKELY TO SEE MVFR SNOW MOVE IN AROUND 10Z
SATURDAY, CONTINUING INTO END OF TAF VALID TIME.
GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5KTS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM:
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...BECOMING IFR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING, AND REMAINING IFR FOR MOST AREAS INTO MONDAY.
MOST PLACES WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. E WIND 5-10 KTS BECOMING S 10-15 KTS LATE
MONDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING BECOMING VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS WIND GUST REMAIN BELOW 25KTS. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH A S WIND SWITCHING TO NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GALES
POSSIBLE AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BUT
ARE NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR STRUCTURES. ANY IMPACTS ARE LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BANKS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. RIVER
ICE IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED LIMITED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL DECAY OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER FROM
WASHBURN AT THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER OF FORT
FAIRFIELD NEAR THE FORT FAIRFIELD AND CARIBOU TOWN LINE. WATER
LEVELS HAVE FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL AS ICE DECAYS. MINOR SHIFTS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOW
LYING FLOODING BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER/MCW
SHORT TERM...MELANSON
LONG TERM...MELANSON
AVIATION...BUSTER/MCW/MELANSON
MARINE...BUSTER/MCW/MELANSON
HYDROLOGY...
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