153
FXUS61 KCAR 290828
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
428 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND TRACK NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA TODAY, EXCEPT FOR A
WEAK BAND OF PRECIP EDGING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP BAND IS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
AND THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN MAINE WILL KEEP IT IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME WEAK COLD AIR
DAMMING IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALL SNOW BEFORE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING. MINIMAL QPF IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
ALSO BE MINIMAL.
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NORTHWARD, THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY RESTRICT VIEWING OF
THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE AT SUNRISE. AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
MOVES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO
RETREAT, OFFERING A LATE WARMUP FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN
PARTICULAR. EDGED THE FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY, AS WEAK COLD INFLOW AND
MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO
QUICKLY.
TONIGHT WILL START MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY
STAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL A LITTLE LATER ON SUNDAY
MORNING. WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST, BUT
KEPT THE NORTH WOODS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR MASS OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
BEGIN CROSSING THE AREA ALL SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM SW TO NE. THE INITIAL PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW
AND SPREAD NORTH, BUT BY THE AFTERNOON, WARM AIR FROM THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RUN OVER THE COLD AIR, CAUSING FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET TO DEVELOP. THIS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LINE SHOULD
PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE DOWNEAST COAST SHOULD SWITCH TO RAIN WHILE THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH, BUT STOP AT THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. CAD WILL BE A CONCERN ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN
TO HANG AROUND THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE WARM AIR SHOULD HAVE MOVED NE TO CHANGE
ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH BREEZY S WINDS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSS BACK OVER THE AREA. AS OF THIS
UPDATE, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CHANGE ANY
LINGERING RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COLD DAYTIME AND
NIGHTTIME TEMPS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BY THURSDAY, ANOTHER
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRING SNOW,
THEN MIXED PRECIP, THEN RAIN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT TO THE E BY
FRIDAY, MAKING FOR RETURNING HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPS.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS WITH CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR IN SNOW LATER SATURDAY
MORNING, RISING BACK TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: SUNDAY MORNING...VFR WITH LIGHT N WIND.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...BECOMING IFR LATE SUNDAY AND
REMAINING IFR FOR MOST AREAS INTO MONDAY. MOST PLACES WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN, FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. E
WIND 5-10 KTS BECOMING S 10-15 KTS LATE MONDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING BECOMING VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NEAR TERM. A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE ON THE FURTHEST
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FEET
LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH A S WIND SWITCHING TO NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GALES
POSSIBLE AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BUT
ARE NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR STRUCTURES. ANY IMPACTS ARE LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BANKS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. RIVER ICE
IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED LIMITED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL DECAY OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED. SOME
RIVER GAUGES SHOWING INFLUENCE FROM BUILDING FRAZIL ICE DUE TO RECENT
COLD TEMPERATURES BUT NO ACTUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER FROM
WASHBURN AT THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER OF FORT
FAIRFIELD NEAR THE FORT FAIRFIELD AND CARIBOU TOWN LINE. WATER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AS ICE DECAYS. MINOR SHIFTS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOW
LYING FLOODING BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MEZ003>006-010-011-017-030-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MEZ015-016-029-031.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH
LONG TERM...LAFLASH
AVIATION...LF/LAFLASH
MARINE...LF/LAFLASH
HYDROLOGY...LF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page