711
FXUS61 KCAR 292222
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
622 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND TRACK
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER
TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE RETURNS ON
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
6:20 PM UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, DECIDED TO INCREASE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. THINKING
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH TO THESE AREAS TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FURTHER NORTH, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
HANG ON LONGER. THUS, KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES THE SAME THERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUST
ACCORINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
IS PUSHING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS. MEANWHILE, SOME CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON NEAR
BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN CLOSER. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
NOT EXPECTING FULL DECOUPLING ALL NIGHT TONIGHT, BUT DO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY IN NORTHERN VALLEYS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THESE SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO GIVEN LOW DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, LOWS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINE. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE BANGOR,
MOOSEHEAD LAKE, AND PENOBSCOT BAY REGIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MIDDAY, AND CATEGORICAL SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, REACHING NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE COLUMN FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START AS SNOW EVERYWHERE. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
CHANGE P-TYPE TO A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF KATAHDIN BY SUNSET. SLEET
WILL BE FAVORED AT FIRST. FURTHER WARMING ALOFT WILL TURN P-TYPE
TO FREEZING RAIN OVER NEAR BANGOR AND PENOBSCOT BAY TOWARDS
SUNSET. IMMEDIATE COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY COULD EVEN CHANGE TO
PLAIN RAIN BY SUNSET. AREAS NORTH OF KATAHDIN WILL REMAIN SNOW
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A WARM NOSE THROUGH THE
PROFILE NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PUSH OF WARM
AIR WILL LEAD TO A QUICK SWITCH OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN TO PLAIN
RAIN FOR BANGOR AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. FOR THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA,
HOWEVER, COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PREVENT THIS WARM AIR FROM
SURGING IN AS FAST, AND LEAD TO A MUCH LONGER PRESENTATION OF A
WARM NOSE ON THE PROFILE AND PROLONGED SLEET FOLLOWED BY
FREEZING RAIN. TOTAL FLAT ICE AMOUNTS REMAIN FORECAST AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS, THOUGH LOCAL SPOTS SUCH AS
MORE SHELTERED, TYPICALLY COLD VALLEYS COULD SEE UP TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE WARM AIR MIXES TO THE
SURFACE. FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY, SURFACE COLD AIR HANGS
ON FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE INVERSION BEGINS
TO WEAKEN INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, LEADING TO UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.
WITH MANY AREAS HAVING LOST THEIR SNOW PACK, AND LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO MIXED PRECIP MOVING IN, THIS GLAZE OF ICE
COULD LEAD TO SLICK AREAS, PARTICULARLY ANYWHERE WHICH REMAINS
UNTREATED. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG,
LIMITING THE THREAT OF TREE DAMAGE.
A FULL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON MONDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, ICE AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
MELT THROUGH THE DAY.
BY MONDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST, RETURNING SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, AND PRECIP IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE
OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY PRIOR TO TEMPERATURES FALLING ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA AS HIGHS ONLY LIFT INTO THE
MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER OVERRUNNING SETUP WHICH
COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH AT STORM ONSET FOR SNOW AT THE BEGINNING, BUT A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX IS PROBABLE PRIOR TO A FULL SWITCH TO
RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS STORM WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY, SO ANY PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP MAY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE A FULL TRANSITION TO RAIN.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER AND A
COLD POOL REMAINING ALOFT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ANY SHOWERS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LACK OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM:
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT BGR AND DOWNEAST FOR SUNDAY
AM WITH LOW CLOUDS AND -SN. IFR OR LOWER IN THE PM WITH -SN,
MIXING WITH -PL AND -FZRA LATE. WINDS BECOMING SE AROUND 5 KTS.
VFR AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY AM AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY PM. TRENDING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR OR LOWER LATE SUNDAY PM
WITH -SN. WINDS BECOMING SE AROUND 5 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
SUN NIGHT - MON: BECOMING IFR/LIFR. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN, FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL RAIN WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SE WIND
5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING S 5 TO 15 KTS LATE MONDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE.
TUES: MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING BECOMING VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 25 - 30 KTS. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
TUES NIGHT - WED: VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS WED AFTERNOON.
THURS: CONDITIONS DECREASING BACK TO IFR/LIFR AS SNOW MOVES IN.
A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
AT MOST TERMINALS BEFORE A FULL TRANSITION TO RAIN. SE WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS WIT GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH SUNDAY. A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING, THEN CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY ON THE WATERS TO 1 TO 3
NM.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT,
INCREASING TOWARDS GALE STRENGTH ON THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARDS 6
TO 10 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BUT
ARE NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR STRUCTURES. ANY IMPACTS ARE LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BANKS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. RIVER ICE
IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED LIMITED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL DECAY OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED. SOME
RIVER GAUGES SHOWING INFLUENCE FROM BUILDING FRAZIL ICE DUE TO RECENT
COLD TEMPERATURES BUT NO ACTUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER FROM
WASHBURN AT THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER OF FORT
FAIRFIELD NEAR THE FORT FAIRFIELD AND CARIBOU TOWN LINE. WATER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AS ICE DECAYS. MINOR SHIFTS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOW
LYING FLOODING BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MEZ003>006-010-011-017-030-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MEZ015-016-029-031.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...CLARK/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...CLARK/ASTRAUSER
HYDROLOGY...LF
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