758   
FXUS61 KCAR 300804  
AFDCAR  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
  
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK   
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER   
TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE RETURNS ON   
THURSDAY.  
  
  
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
  
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE   
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR   
TODAY, HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE START TIME OF THE   
SNOW MOVING INTO THE BANGOR REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING.   
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE, THE MOISTURE WILL BE FIGHTING WITH A  
VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR, THUS THE REASON FOR THE SLOW   
PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW INTO THE NE. BY THE TIME TO SNOW HAS   
REACHED CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND THE ST JOHN VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE   
SWITCHING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS THE WARM ONSHORE   
FLOW OVERRUNS THE COLD SURFACE AIR.   
  
BY TONIGHT, THE WARM FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE NE, SWITCHING ALL  
FLOW TO THE SE. BY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL  
INCREASE ALONG TO COAST TO ABOVE FREEZING, TURNING ALL PRECIP TO  
RAIN. BY MIDNIGHT, RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE BANGOR REGION AND THE  
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL HAVE MOVED NE INTO THE NORTH WOODS AND  
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK. PER THIS UPDATE, MIXED PRECIP WILL REACH THE  
ST JOHN VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY THIS TIME, THE RAIN  
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BUT STOOPING THERE DUE  
TO THE CAD SETTING UP AND HOLDING ON TO THE MIXED PRECIP FOR  
MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER BEGINS TO MIX, THE CAD WILL ERODE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH TO  
RAIN. AREAS IN THE NORTH THAT SAW THE LATER SWITCH OVER TO MIXED  
PRECIP WILL HOLD ON TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO MONDAY  
MORNING.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/  
  
WARM FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH   
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND   
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING WITH, AT BEST, A   
FEW HUNDREDTHS ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETION. EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL WARM   
ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE RAIN AFTER 15Z.   
DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SRN AND CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY   
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN STEADY RAIN LATE   
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. H8 JET   
STRENGTHENS TO BETWEEN 50-60KTS IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH VERY STABLE   
LAYER WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS MIXING DOWN.  
  
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING WITH UPR   
JET STREAK STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH CANADA OVERNIGHT.   
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER DOWNEAST AS PW VALUES REACH TO OVER   
1.00 INCH, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ELEVATED   
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER   
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OR OVER THE WATERS. COLD FRONT MOVES   
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CAA MOVING IN FROM   
CANADA.   
  
TEMPS LOOK TO SLOWLY FALL ON TUESDAY WITH FROPA AND WITH DEEP MIXING   
UP TWD H8 IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE NW WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN   
30 TO 35 MPH. DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE   
SINGLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY.   
  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES   
CLEARING. ANOTHER MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO   
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID-TEENS OVER DOWNEAST.   
  
  
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WX QUIET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE   
NEXT SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO WRN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY   
EVENING WITH LOCATIONS COLD ENOUGH TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARM FRONT   
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN   
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH PERHAPS AN AREA OF SLEET AND FREEZING   
RAIN MIXING IN LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE  
COLD AIR DAMMING. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH PRECIP   
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THRU THE END OF  
THE LONG TERM WITH WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AS S/WVS  
IN FAST-MOVING FLOW SLIP THRU AND BRING SHOWERS. TEMPS THRU   
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE   
NORMAL.   
  
  
   
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
  
NEAR TERM: AROOSTOOK TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS   
MORNING AND INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DECREASE TO   
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND INTO   
TONIGHT. WEATHER WILL SWITCH TO -FZRA AND -IP AFTER MIDNIGHT.   
LIGHT SE WINDS.  
  
DOWNEAST TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY  
DECREASE TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY AROUND NOON AND REMAIN FOR  
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. -SN LATE THIS MORNING, THEN -FZRA AND  
-IP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SWITCHING TO -RA BY MIDNIGHT.  
LIGHT SE WINDS.  
  
SHORT TERM:   
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG WITH A   
BRIEF PERIOD OF FRZG RAIN EARLY MONDAY. S 5-15KTS BECOMING NW   
5-15KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY. LLWS POSSIBLE.  
  
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW 5-15KTS AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY,  
BECOMING LIGHT WEDNESDAY.  
  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND   
IFR WEDNESDAY EVENING IN LIGHT SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT MIXED   
PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY MAINLY FOR BGR AND HUL   
TERMINALS. SE 5-10KTS.   
  
  
   
MARINE  
  
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REACH SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND REMAIN UNTIL  
MONDAY MORNING. SEAS 3-4 FT.  
  
SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY  
EVENING. SEAS CLIMB TOWARD 10FT MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.  
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TOWARD GALE FORCE THURSDAY  
MORNING.   
  
  
   
HYDROLOGY  
  
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BUT  
ARE NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR STRUCTURES. ANY IMPACTS ARE LOW   
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BANKS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. RIVER ICE  
IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED LIMITED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING   
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL DECAY OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED. SOME  
RIVER GAUGES SHOWING INFLUENCE FROM BUILDING FRAZIL ICE DUE TO RECENT  
COLD TEMPERATURES BUT NO ACTUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.   
  
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER FROM   
WASHBURN AT THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE.  
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  
  
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER OF FORT  
FAIRFIELD NEAR THE FORT FAIRFIELD AND CARIBOU TOWN LINE. WATER  
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE   
TO FALL AS ICE DECAYS. MINOR SHIFTS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOW   
LYING FLOODING BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.   
  
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT  
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA.  
  
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT   
     MONDAY FOR MEZ001-002.  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT   
     MONDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010-011-017-030-032.  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT   
     MONDAY FOR MEZ015-016-029-031.  
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR   
     ANZ050>052.  
  
  
  
  
  
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH  
SHORT TERM...BUSTER  
LONG TERM...BUSTER  
AVIATION...LAFLASH/BUSTER  
MARINE...LAFLASH/BUSTER  
HYDROLOGY...LF  
 
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