618
FXUS61 KCAR 301024
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER
TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE RETURNS ON
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
625AM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY, HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE START TIME OF THE
SNOW MOVING INTO THE BANGOR REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING.
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE, THE MOISTURE WILL BE FIGHTING WITH A
VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR, THUS THE REASON FOR THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW INTO THE NE. BY THE TIME TO SNOW HAS
REACHED CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND THE ST JOHN VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE
SWITCHING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS THE WARM ONSHORE
FLOW OVERRUNS THE COLD SURFACE AIR.
BY TONIGHT, THE WARM FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE NE, SWITCHING ALL
FLOW TO THE SE. BY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL
INCREASE ALONG TO COAST TO ABOVE FREEZING, TURNING ALL PRECIP TO
RAIN. BY MIDNIGHT, RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE BANGOR REGION AND THE
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL HAVE MOVED NE INTO THE NORTH WOODS AND
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK. PER THIS UPDATE, MIXED PRECIP WILL REACH THE
ST JOHN VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY THIS TIME, THE RAIN
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BUT STOOPING THERE DUE
TO THE CAD SETTING UP AND HOLDING ON TO THE MIXED PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO MIX, THE CAD WILL ERODE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH TO
RAIN. AREAS IN THE NORTH THAT SAW THE LATER SWITCH OVER TO MIXED
PRECIP WILL HOLD ON TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WARM FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING WITH, AT BEST, A
FEW HUNDREDTHS ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETION. EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL WARM
ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE RAIN AFTER 15Z.
DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SRN AND CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN STEADY RAIN LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. H8 JET
STRENGTHENS TO BETWEEN 50-60KTS IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH VERY STABLE
LAYER WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS MIXING DOWN.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING WITH UPR
JET STREAK STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH CANADA OVERNIGHT.
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER DOWNEAST AS PW VALUES REACH TO OVER
1.00 INCH, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OR OVER THE WATERS. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CAA MOVING IN FROM
CANADA.
TEMPS LOOK TO SLOWLY FALL ON TUESDAY WITH FROPA AND WITH DEEP MIXING
UP TWD H8 IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE NW WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN
30 TO 35 MPH. DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES
CLEARING. ANOTHER MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID-TEENS OVER DOWNEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WX QUIET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO WRN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOCATIONS COLD ENOUGH TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH PERHAPS AN AREA OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN MIXING IN LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
COLD AIR DAMMING. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THRU THE END OF
THE LONG TERM WITH WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AS S/WVS
IN FAST-MOVING FLOW SLIP THRU AND BRING SHOWERS. TEMPS THRU
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: AROOSTOOK TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DECREASE TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. WEATHER WILL SWITCH TO -FZRA AND -IP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT SE WINDS.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY AROUND NOON AND REMAIN FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. -SN LATE THIS MORNING, THEN -FZRA AND
-IP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SWITCHING TO -RA BY MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT SE WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FRZG RAIN EARLY MONDAY. S 5-15KTS BECOMING NW
5-15KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY. LLWS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW 5-15KTS AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY,
BECOMING LIGHT WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND
IFR WEDNESDAY EVENING IN LIGHT SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT MIXED
PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY MAINLY FOR BGR AND HUL
TERMINALS. SE 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REACH SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND REMAIN UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING. SEAS 3-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. SEAS CLIMB TOWARD 10FT MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TOWARD GALE FORCE THURSDAY
MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BUT
ARE NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR STRUCTURES. ANY IMPACTS ARE LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BANKS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. RIVER ICE
IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED LIMITED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL DECAY OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED. SOME
RIVER GAUGES SHOWING INFLUENCE FROM BUILDING FRAZIL ICE DUE TO RECENT
COLD TEMPERATURES BUT NO ACTUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER FROM
WASHBURN AT THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER OF FORT
FAIRFIELD NEAR THE FORT FAIRFIELD AND CARIBOU TOWN LINE. WATER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AS ICE DECAYS. MINOR SHIFTS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOW
LYING FLOODING BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010-011-017-030-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR MEZ015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...LAFLASH/BUSTER
MARINE...LAFLASH/BUSTER
HYDROLOGY...
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