778
FXUS61 KCAR 311004
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
604 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TUESDAY, THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
603AM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH WHILE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. THE UPPER AIR MODELS
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WARM ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING NORTH THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE SWITCH FROM MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE NORTH. RADAR SCANS SHOW THE MAKE UP OF THE PRECIP IS MORE IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS RATHER THAN STRATIFORM. THUS THE DRY
SLOTTING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED TOWARDS
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATER AFTERNOON, THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE
RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES AGAIN AND REMAIN INTO THE NIGHT.
BY TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, EXITING
TO THE SE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL DECREASE RAIN SHOWERS FROM
NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, ENDING ALL SHOWERS AROUND TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT EXITS, THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN, CAUSING TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH W WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, IT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO DRY
OUR SURFACES BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES INTO. POSSIBLE ICY
ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY EVENING BUT NOT
SOON ENOUGH TO RELAX GRADIENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH CAA MAXES WILL
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
PRESENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH MIXING EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TEENS ACRS THE NORTH AND AROUND 20 DOWNEAST. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WOODS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION MORE THAN THE RULE.
RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH
SYSTEM OCCLUDING OUT IN THE PLAINS MID-HIGH DECK WILL BE MOVING IN
TWD EVENING. WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH OVERRUNNING MOVING IN.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO INITIALLY START OFF AS SNOW BUT WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET, SLEET AND FRZG RAIN LIKELY TO MIX IN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOR THURSDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP
WHERE COLD SFC TEMPS LIKELY TO GET STUCK IN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT STREAMING IN ON
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE STILL QUITE A FEW DAYS FOR THINGS
TO CHANGE EXPECT THAT SOME AREAS WILL SEE IMPACTS ON THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH PRECIP WINDING DOWN AS RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
TO BE FOUND INITIALLY. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTH AND LOW TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. NW
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK S/WVS
MOVING THRU.
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MODERATE TOWARD MORE
NORMAL VALUES. LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FM NRN CANADA DOWN TWD
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL BRING DEEPENING SW FLOW TOWARD THE
AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTING CWA NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY DURING TIMES WHEN THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO
THE TERMINALS. LLWS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. S WINDS 5-10 KTS TODAY. SW WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
BECOMING W 5-15 KTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR IN
THE MORNING. MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
AFTERNOON. NW 10-20KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW 5-15KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY DIMINISHING TO IFR/LIFR LATE IN SNOW
NORTH AND WINTRY MIX CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. LIGHT S
BECOMING SE 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
THURSDAY...IFR/LIFR WINTRY MIX EARLY, CHANGING TO RAIN DOWNEAST
IN THE MORNING AND AROOSTOOK TERMINALS LATE. SE 5-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR EARLY BECOMING MVFR/IFR. RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS. S 5-10KTS BECOMING W LATE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR SOUTH, MVFR NORTH. STRAY RAIN SHOWER
POSSIBLE. NW 5-15KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FRO TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THEN SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SEAS BETWEEN 4-8 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NW WINDS GUST ABOVE
25KTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING COLD FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS RETURN THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
HYDROLOGY
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BUT
ARE NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR STRUCTURES. ANY IMPACTS ARE LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BANKS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. RIVER ICE
IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED LIMITED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL DECAY OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED. SOME
RIVER GAUGES SHOWING INFLUENCE FROM BUILDING FRAZIL ICE DUE TO RECENT
COLD TEMPERATURES BUT NO ACTUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER FROM
WASHBURN AT THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER OF FORT
FAIRFIELD NEAR THE FORT FAIRFIELD AND CARIBOU TOWN LINE. WATER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AS ICE DECAYS. MINOR SHIFTS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOW
LYING FLOODING BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-017-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...LAFLASH/BUSTER
MARINE...LAFLASH/BUSTER
HYDROLOGY...
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