553
FXUS61 KCAR 311749
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
149 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY, THEN CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY TO EXPIRE WITH THIS UPDATE. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL SLOWLY DRAW A WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY REMAINING
LINGERING LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL TRANSITION
TO RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND A TRACE. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR REGIONWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, EXITING TO
THE SE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL DECREASE RAIN SHOWERS FROM NW
TO SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, ENDING ALL SHOWERS AROUND TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT EXITS, THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN, CAUSING TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH W WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, IT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO DRY
OUR SURFACES BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES INTO. POSSIBLE ICY
ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY EVENING BUT NOT
SOON ENOUGH TO RELAX GRADIENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH CAA MAXES WILL
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
PRESENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH MIXING EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TEENS ACRS THE NORTH AND AROUND 20 DOWNEAST. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WOODS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION MORE THAN THE RULE.
RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH
SYSTEM OCCLUDING OUT IN THE PLAINS MID-HIGH DECK WILL BE MOVING IN
TWD EVENING. WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH OVERRUNNING MOVING IN.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO INITIALLY START OFF AS SNOW BUT WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET, SLEET AND FRZG RAIN LIKELY TO MIX IN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THURSDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP
WHERE COLD SFC TEMPS LIKELY TO GET STUCK IN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT STREAMING IN ON
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE STILL QUITE A FEW DAYS FOR THINGS
TO CHANGE EXPECT THAT SOME AREAS WILL SEE IMPACTS ON THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH PRECIP WINDING DOWN AS RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
TO BE FOUND INITIALLY. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTH AND LOW TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. NW
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK S/WVS
MOVING THRU.
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MODERATE TOWARD MORE
NORMAL VALUES. LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FM NRN CANADA DOWN TWD
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL BRING DEEPENING SW FLOW TOWARD THE
AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTING CWA NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, THEN VFR/MVFR
LATE TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. LLWS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR IN
THE MORNING. MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
AFTERNOON. NW 10-20KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW 5-15KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY DIMINISHING TO IFR/LIFR LATE IN SNOW
NORTH AND WINTRY MIX CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. LIGHT S
BECOMING SE 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
THURSDAY...IFR/LIFR WINTRY MIX EARLY, CHANGING TO RAIN DOWNEAST
IN THE MORNING AND AROOSTOOK TERMINALS LATE. SE 5-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR EARLY BECOMING MVFR/IFR. RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS. S 5-10KTS BECOMING W LATE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR SOUTH, MVFR NORTH. STRAY RAIN SHOWER
POSSIBLE. NW 5-15KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
SHOWERS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SEAS BETWEEN 4-8 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NW WINDS GUST ABOVE
25KTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING COLD FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS RETURN THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
HYDROLOGY
A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BUT
ARE NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR STRUCTURES. ANY IMPACTS ARE LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER BANKS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. RIVER ICE
IS LEADING TO A LOCALIZED LIMITED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL DECAY OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED. SOME
RIVER GAUGES SHOWING INFLUENCE FROM BUILDING FRAZIL ICE DUE TO RECENT
COLD TEMPERATURES BUT NO ACTUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER FROM
WASHBURN AT THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BEND NEAR CASTLE HILL AND WADE.
WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AN ICE JAM REMAINS GROUNDED INTO THE RIVER BED UPRIVER OF FORT
FAIRFIELD NEAR THE FORT FAIRFIELD AND CARIBOU TOWN LINE. WATER
LEVELS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AS ICE DECAYS. MINOR SHIFTS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOW
LYING FLOODING BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
A SIX MILE JAM REMAINS AROUND SAINT FRANCIS, WITH NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THIS AREA.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BUSTER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BUSTER
HYDROLOGY...
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