013
FXUS61 KCAR 312150
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS
THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN OCCLUDED LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TOWARD THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE TONIGHT DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. COULD
STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY MORNING DOWNEAST WITH THE
EXITING COLD FRONT AND LOW. ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY, WITH CLOUDS THEN DECREASING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 MPH TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S NORTH, TO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH, TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TUESDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD RELAX BY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT THE
AMPLE MIXING INDUCED BY THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD PREVENT EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS TO BE IN THE TEENS
AND DOWNEAST TO STAY IN THE LOWER 20S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTH WOODS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT
THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION MORE THAN THE RULE. ALSO, CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WOODS TUESDAY EVENING
AS MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGIN TO WORK IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
AN OCCLUDING LOW OUT OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN A SIMILAR
FASHION TO SUNDAY NIGHT’S STORM. PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS
SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET, THEN FREEZING RAIN, AND
EVENTUALLY PLAIN RAIN. COLD AIR DAMMING COULD BE ANOTHER CAUSE
FOR CONCERN WITH THIS STORM AS TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, SOME OF THE HIGHEST
ICE TOTALS OF 0.1-0.2" ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LOW
DEPARTS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR THE NORTH AND 50S FARTHER SOUTH.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT OVER ITS TRACK, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK TO GET A BETTER IDEA.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING, THEN VFR/MVFR LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS TONIGHT, EXCEPT RAIN
RE-DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT. VFR/MVFR EARLY TUESDAY, THEN GENERALLY VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN DOWNEAST EARLY TUESDAY.
ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW 5-15KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY DIMINISHING TO IFR/LIFR LATE IN SNOW
NORTH AND WINTRY MIX CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SE 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
THURSDAY...IFR/LIFR WINTRY MIX EARLY, CHANGING TO RAIN DOWNEAST
IN THE MORNING AND AROOSTOOK TERMINALS LATE. SE 5-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR EARLY BECOMING MVFR/IFR. RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS. S 5-10KTS BECOMING W LATE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR SOUTH, MVFR NORTH IN ANY STRAY RAIN SHOWERS.
NW 5-15KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW 5-10KTS.
SATURDAY...VFR EARLY BECOMING MVFR FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. N WIND EARLY BECOMING S 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS BETWEEN 4-8 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NW WINDS GUST
ABOVE 25KTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING COLD FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS RETURN TO THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MELANSON
LONG TERM...MELANSON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MELANSON
MARINE...NORCROSS/MELANSON
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