241
FXUS61 KCAR 010514
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
12:40AM UPDATE...SKY CLEAR IN A THE NORTH AND A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST ON
TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR
THROUGH THE REGION. BY LATER TONIGHT, THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FROM THE RETREATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE RELAXED AND
WINDS WILL DECREASE. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LITTLE WIND. EXPECTING A WELL MIXED AIR MASS IN THE AFTERNOON,
SO RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE FOR
A PLEASANT FEELING DAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SYSTEM SLIGHTLY, SO OBSERVABLE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT DRY AIR MASS MAY ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO VIRGA ON THE LEADING EDGE, SO PRECIP ARRIVAL COULD
BE EVEN LATER ON FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN STATE BORDER, AND
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
WITH. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE
STATE LYING IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY PEAK EARLY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATER ON SATURDAY.
THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT HEAVIER, AND UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. QPF
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.3 TO UPWARDS OF 0.5
INCHES, WITH MORE PRECIP EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLOODING AND WILL MOSTLY BE
BENEFICIAL FOR LEADING TO GREENUP AND MITIGATING POTENTIAL
DROUGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD,
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE STATE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY
SUNDAY DURING THE DAY, THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST AND RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BEHIND THE LOW.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP UNDER SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH,
ALTHOUGH WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE WEEKEND AND THE LACK OF
WINDS UNDER THE HIGH, FIRE WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY BE LESS OF A
CONCERN THAN IT HAS FOR THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WINDS FROM THE
NW, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TOMORROW
EVENING. A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE AT KFVE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SKIES STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE S AT 5-10KTS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN.
WINDS FROM THE S/SE AT 5-10 KTS, GUSTING 20-25 KTS. POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. S WIND
BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN LINGERS
IN THE AREA. S WIND 5 TO 10KTS BECOMING W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. W WIND 10 KTS BECOMING N ON
MONDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ARE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. WINDS FROM THE N/NW, SHIFTING TO THE S/SW BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO CREEP UP TOWARDS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW SHIFTING TO THE S BY
FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DEWPOINTS ARE CONTINUING TO DROP THROUGH THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH
THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER
THAN EXPECTED, AND THEREFORE THE RH VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. TOMORROW, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION, AND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60, RH
VALUES WILL FALL CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE REGION WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WINDS WILL BE MUCH
CALMER THAN TODAY. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/BRENNAN/LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...BLOOMER/BRENNAN/LF/LF
MARINE...BLOOMER/BRENNAN/LF/LF
FIRE WEATHER...
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