057
FXUS61 KCAR 011121
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
721 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE
AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
6:40AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE 30S, AND IN SOME SPOTS, HIGH 20S,
BUT SUN HAS RISEN AND SKIES ARE CLEAR SO SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY
QUICK THIS MORNING. THERE IS A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GOING
THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. OTHERWISE, FORECAST ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE MOVES EASTWARD, WHILE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MAINE FROM
THE WEST, CRESTING OVER MAINE BY MIDDAY TODAY. DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS MOVE IN WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES
AND RISING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S.
BY TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC. TALL MOISTURE COLUMN MOVES IN
WITH THIS LOW, BRINGING CLOUDS BACK INTO MAINE FROM THE WEST.
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO MAINE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, STARTING OFF AS
RAIN SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW-40S. AS THE
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WARMER AIR MOVES IN BY DAYBREAK,
ALONGSIDE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE FRIDAY DRAWING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD
LABRADOR FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE WAKE
OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT. EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN WILL RE-DEVELOP SATURDAY THEN
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE AREA OF STEADIEST RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
MAINE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN OR
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY, WHILE STILL
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE RETURN FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY/MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
FROM THE W/NW, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS EVENING. SKIES STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN BY
EARLY MORNING.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS FROM THE
W/NW, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS
EVENING. SKIES STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN BY EARLY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, WITH RAIN. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR,
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY THEN RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, EARLY THEN VFR/MVFR LATE. A
CHANCE OF RAIN. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS AT OR BELOW 4FT IN THE
OUTER-WATERS, AND AT OR BELOW 3FT IN THE INTRA-COASTALS. WINDS
FROM THE NW, SHIFTING TO THE S/SW BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. RAIN
SHOWERS BEGIN BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY, THEN RAIN
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
20-30 PERCENT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA TODAY, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS BLOWING FROM THE NW AND THEN
SHIFTING S/SW. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BRENNAN/NORCROSS
MARINE...BRENNAN/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...
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