015
FXUS61 KCAR 020539
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
139 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTH OF MAINE
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, THEN
LINGER ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1:00AM UPDATE... RAIN MOVES INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. SOME PLACES IN THE NORTH FALL INTO THE MID-30S,
BUT WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH MORE. CONTINUING TO MONITOR IN
CASE TEMPERATURES DO DROP MORE AND GO BELOW FREEZING, WHICH IF
PROLONGED, COULD CAUSE SOME SLICK TRAVEL AS RAIN PERSIST.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. BY TONIGHT, THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH APPROACH THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH-RES QPF MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN PROGRESSING EAST INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S WHICH
WILL HELP STABILIZE DOWNEAST. IN ADDITION, THE UPSLOPE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE MORNING. THUS INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN. UPPER AIR MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A SHORT PERIOD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WHERE THE
BANGOR REGION AND SECTIONS OF DOWNEAST WILL BE IN
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE OVERNIGHT, WITH DRY AIR FILLING IN THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS AND LEAVING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS,
WHERE SPRINKLES MAY LINGER UNTIL THE AREA DRIES OUT INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DRAPE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO A RETURN OF RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE DOWNEAST
REGION, THOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF
BETWEEN PRECIP IN THE SOUTH AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTH.
SHOULD THE FRONT STALL JUST OFFSHORE, THERE IS A CHANCE EVEN THE
DOWNEAST REGION COULD SEE LESS RAIN. ALTERNATIVELY, IF THERE IS
A WOBBLE NORTHWARDS WITH THE FRONT POSITION, RAIN COULD STREAM
FURTHER INLAND. THAT SAID, THE TREND IS A SOUTHERN ONE, SO IT IS
MOST LIKELY THAT IF ANYONE RECEIVES RAIN, IT WILL BE THE COASTAL
DOWNEAST REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH
THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING THE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE SPEED IN WHICH THIS
LOW ENTERS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW STRONG THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
AND HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH PULLS OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
WHICH MAY ALSO DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CENTER MOVES AND
THUS HOW INTENSE RAINFALL MAY BECOME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO
MVFR BY DAYTIME DUE TO DROPPING CEILINGS AND RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. CEILINGS STEADILY
DROP, INTO IFR/LIFR HEIGHTS BY THIS EVENING. LLWS POTENTIAL
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS FROM THE S/SE AT 5-10KTS, WITH A FEW
GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO
MVFR BY DAYTIME DUE TO DROPPING CEILINGS AND RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS
STEADILY DROP, INTO IFR, POTENTIALLY LIFR, HEIGHTS BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS FROM THE S/SE AT 5-10KTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20
KT POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM:
FRI NIGHT: MVFR/IFR EARLY IN LINGERING SHOWERS, IMPROVING LATE.
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN DRIZZLE OR FOG. LIGHT SW
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
SAT - SUN: MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS, IMPROVING
TO VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WHILE DOWNEAST TERMINALS
REMAIN MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING W AT 5 TO 10 KTS, DURING
THE DAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MON - TUES: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE OUTER WATERS WILL BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND MARGINAL.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DEPARTING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN/BUSTER/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...BRENNAN/BUSTER/LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...BRENNAN/BUSTER/LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
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