338
FXUS61 KCAR 021658
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1258 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1256PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
MOVES NORTHEAST, BRINGING RAIN AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAS CAUSED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SHIFTED WINDS TO THE SOUTH. RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING IN NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN MAINE.
NOT CONFIDENT IN THUNDER MAKING IT TO NORTHERN MAINE, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER RUMBLES ALONG THE COAST/OVER THE
WATERS TODAY. THERE IS FAVORABLE SHEAR, HELICITY, AND UPPER AIR
INSTABILITY, BUT IT SEEMS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MORE STABLE
AIR INTO THE AREA DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES OVER WATERS. IT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE TODAY, NORTHERN MAINE WOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A JET, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STORMS.
DURING THE EVENING, DRY AIR AT 700MB MOVES IN. THAT BEING SAID,
THE LOW LEVELS STAY QUITE MOIST, SO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. MADE PRECIPITATION GO
FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BY EVENING/NIGHTTIME DUE
TO THIS DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
MAINE. SOME COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE SOME FOG IN THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. KEPT IT TO FOG ONLY ALONG THE COAST AND
LOW STRATUS EVERYWHERE ELSE BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND THE DEPTH OF
THE INVERSION AT THE SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID-40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DOWNEAST REGION, OR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST,
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL FOCUS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. A STEADIER RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS MOSTLY
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LESSER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, CLOSER TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION. HOWEVER, HOW RAPIDLY THE FRONT MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
RAIN WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES DOWNEAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. COULD STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE EXITING FRONT ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DOWNEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH, PARTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE STILL RIDGING BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING HOW RAPIDLY THE SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY. A SLOWER
MOVING SYSTEM COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THURSDAY. A MORE RAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW
FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR DUE
TO DROPPING CEILINGS AND RAIN. LLWS INTO AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. CEILINGS STEADILY DROP, INTO IFR/LIFR HEIGHTS BY THIS
EVENING. LLWS POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS FROM THE S/SE AT
5-10KTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR DUE TO
DROPPING CEILINGS AND RAIN. LLWS THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS STEADILY DROP, INTO IFR,
POTENTIALLY LIFR, HEIGHTS BY THIS EVENING. WINDS FROM THE S/SE
AT 5-10KTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR,
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY THEN RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, EARLY THEN VFR/MVFR LATE. A
CHANCE OF RAIN. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN VFR/MVFR LATE. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AT OR BELOW 4FT IN THE
OUTER-WATERS, AND AT OR BELOW 3FT IN THE INTRA-COASTALS. WINDS
FROM THE S, SHIFTING TO THE SW BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE IN OUTER-WATERS. RAIN SHOWERS TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER OVER
THE WATERS LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BRENNAN/LAFLASH/NORCROSS
MARINE...BRENNAN/LAFLASH/NORCROSS
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