949
FXUS61 KCAR 021914
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
314 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACROSS QUEBEC
TONIGHT. THE REMAINING SHOWERS ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
STICK AROUND AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT, KEEPING TEMP IN THE 40S
FOR THE NIGHT. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE STABLE AIR
IN THE SOUTH AND GENERAL LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE
BANGOR REGION. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THE MARINE LAYER WILL
MOVE IN AS A LOW STRATUS DECK WITH DRIZZLE OR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG. THE SREF MODEL GAVE CONFIDENCE IN FOG RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. FURTHER INLAND WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN.
FOR SATURDAY, THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL APPROACH THE REGION AS
WARM FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. RAIN SHOWER WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAIR NORTH THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PROGRESS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF THIS
UPDATE, THE EXTENDED MODELS WAIT TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE
NORTH WOODS AND THE ST JOHN VALLEY, WHILE THE HIGH RES WANTS TO
BRING SOME SHOWER ACROSS THE WHOLE NORTH. DECIDED TO GO WITH A
LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH. WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTH, COOLER ON THE COAST.
THE NORTH WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
LONG IT TAKES FOR THIS FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST, AND
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO STALL.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE COAST BY EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SUPPORT MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THAT SAID, WITH ENERGY PROPAGATING
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, SUPPORT FOR ANY MORE INTENSE STORMS
WILL BE LIMITED, THOUGH NONZERO. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A
FEW MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THAT BRING ABOUT LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
A SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, WHERE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY DRY
OUT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MOST RAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST. THIS AREA OF DRIER WEATHER COULD EXTEND EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH, DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, USHERING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AND ALLOWING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TO DRY OUT INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS ON WEDNESDAY, BRINING THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN. THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, AS THE LOW COULD BE OCCLUDING AND PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA, OR A SECONDARY LOW COULD BECOME MORE OF THE DOMINANT
FEATURE CROSSING THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOW THE LOW
EVOLVES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE SYSTEM IS ANOTHER LIGHT TO
MODERATE WETTING RAIN, OR IF THERE COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING LEADING TO HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THIS LOW, THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST THE THREAT OF RAIN EACH DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE ADVANCING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A DRIER PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CIGS CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND CIGS/VSBY FOR BGR/BHB IN FOG. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS IN BREAKS OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
S WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
FOR SATURDAY, MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR.
THEN BACK TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN. WNW WINDS 5-10 KTS. BHB SSW
WINDS 5 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
SAT NIGHT - SUN: VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WHILE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS REMAIN MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NW 5 TO 10 KTS ON SUN.
SUN NIGHT - TUES: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
WED: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS. S WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE WATERS AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
AT TIMES.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
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