020
FXUS61 KCAR 030242
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1042 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
AND STALL ALONG THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
1045 PM UPDATE (MS):
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT OVERNIGHT AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA, LEADING TO ISENTROPIC
LIFT. FOG HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY
AT BAR HARBOR AND FRENCHVILLE, AND LOWERING VISIBILITY CONTINUE
TO EXPAND AT ALL OBSERVATION SITES EXCEPT PQI AND CAR AS OF
230Z. CONTINUED TO INCREASE FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND EXPECTATION THAT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL OVERRIDE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACROSS QUEBEC
TONIGHT. THE REMAINING SHOWERS ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
STICK AROUND AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT, KEEPING TEMP IN THE 40S
FOR THE NIGHT. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE STABLE AIR
IN THE SOUTH AND GENERAL LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE
BANGOR REGION.
FOR SATURDAY, THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL APPROACH THE REGION AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVES
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH
THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE EXTENDED MODELS WAIT TO KEEP THE
RAIN OUT OF THE NORTH WOODS AND THE ST JOHN VALLEY, WHILE THE
HIGH RES BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH. WARM ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTH, COOLER ON
THE COAST. THE NORTH WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
LONG IT TAKES FOR THIS FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST, AND
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO STALL.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE COAST BY EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SUPPORT MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THAT SAID, WITH ENERGY PROPAGATING
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, SUPPORT FOR ANY MORE INTENSE STORMS
WILL BE LIMITED, THOUGH NONZERO. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A
FEW MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THAT BRING ABOUT LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
A SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, WHERE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY DRY
OUT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MOST RAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST. THIS AREA OF DRIER WEATHER COULD EXTEND EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH, DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, USHERING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AND ALLOWING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TO DRY OUT INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS ON WEDNESDAY, BRINING THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN. THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, AS THE LOW COULD BE OCCLUDING AND PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA, OR A SECONDARY LOW COULD BECOME MORE OF THE DOMINANT
FEATURE CROSSING THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOW THE LOW
EVOLVES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE SYSTEM IS ANOTHER LIGHT TO
MODERATE WETTING RAIN, OR IF THERE COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING LEADING TO HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THIS LOW, THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS THAT
PERSIST THE THREAT OF RAIN EACH DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE ADVANCING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A DRIER PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. BECOMING VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND
DAYBREAK. LLWS POSSIBLE. S WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.
FOR SATURDAY, AFTER REMAINING IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFTS
AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS, ALL TERMINALS WILL BECOME VFR/MVFR. RAIN
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR BHB AND BGR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 0Z TAF. WNW WINDS 5-10 KTS, EXCEPT
COASTAL TERMINALS AND BHB WHICH WILL SEE SSW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
SAT NIGHT - SUN: VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WHILE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS REMAIN MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NW 5 TO 10 KTS ON SUN.
SUN NIGHT - TUES: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
WED: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS. S WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE WATERS AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
AT TIMES.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH/MSTRAUSER
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...LAFLASH/MSTRAUSER/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
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