903
FXUS61 KCAR 030949
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
549 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY, STALLING ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING AREAS/WIDESPREAD
FOG THIS MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SUPPORT A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LESSER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST
ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY TODAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. LESSER RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 NORTH, TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH, TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVIDING SUBTROPICAL AIR SOUTH OF OUR COAST FROM
DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. THE SKY WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY WELL NORTH OF THIS FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT NORTH
WHILE DOWNEAST IS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BRING A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY OVER THE NORTH ON MONDAY WHILE DOWNEAST, CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY, REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH WILL END UP JUST A
BIT WARMER THAN THE SOUTH WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. A
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER
MAY STRAY INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST, RIDGING WEST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS, MAY INHIBIT
THE RAIN FOR A WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE SKY REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SOUTH SUPPORTED BY A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ONTO THE COAST.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS. INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TOWARD OUR WEST PULLING THE
HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY KEEPING OUR
SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO PRESS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS LINGERING MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT WITH THE GFS MORE OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT CLEARING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A LOT OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
AND HANGS BACK THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST. IN SPITE ALL THE
CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE LOW PULLING SOME SUBTROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD INTO OUR
AREAS.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR, OCCASIONAL VLIFR, EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
FOG AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. VFR/MVFR WIH A CHANCE OF RAIN
NORTH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR DOWNEAST WITH RAIN TONIGHT. VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
SUNDAY...VFR NORTH. VFR TO MVFR SOUTH. LIGHT W WIND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NE WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT NE WIND.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR, LOWERING TO MVFR SOUTH. LIGHT SE WIND.
TUESDAY...MVFR LOWERING TO IFR SOUTH. MVFR NORTH. SE WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR. SE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR SOUTH. S WIND.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A CHANCE
OF RAIN TODAY, THEN RAIN TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
S WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH
WINDS. OTHERWISE, WIND AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
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