809
FXUS61 KCAR 032356
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
756 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
7 PM UPDATE: THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED TO SITTING ACROSS
THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY, WITH SHOWERS STREAMING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION UP INTO SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
CRAWL TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN PICKED UP IN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS,
BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ALONG COASTAL
DOWNEAST AND THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR THIS EVENING,
THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN ALONG DOWNEAST AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
HIGH RES QPF MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED INTO THE
RAIN BAND, MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST. WITH THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS NH AND MAINE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THE EVENING.
BY TONIGHT, THE VORT MAX SEPARATES WITH THE BIGGER AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST WITH THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STICK TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITTING OVER CANADA. THE NORTH WILL BE IN AND OUT OF
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IF THESE CLOUDS MOVE OUT EARLY,
AREAS TO THE NORTH COULD SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE
SOUTH WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
FOR SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL STILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH WITH RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN, THE NORTH WILL BE
IN AND OUT OF CLOUD COVER WITH SUNSHINE BRINGING TEMPS INTO THE
60S FOR THE DAY. THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
TO OUR SOUTH. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST. THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, BUT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN TO TO OUR WEST DURING MONDAY
NIGHT, AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LATE SHOWERS FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON
TUESDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE, WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. IT
APPEARS AS IF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY,
THEN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HUL COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR IN LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WNW WINDS 5-10
KTS SUNDAY.
BGR/BHB/DOWNEAST TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN
RAIN SHOWERS AND BR/PATCHY FG. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. W WINDS AROUND 5 KTS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM:
SUN NIGHT AND MON...VFR. LIGHT NE WIND.
MON NIGHT...VFR, BECOMING MVFR/IFR KBGR/KBHB LATE. LIGHT SE WIND.
TUE...MVFR. LIGHT SE WIND.
TUE NIGHT AND WED...MVFR/IFR. S WIND.
THU...MVFR.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. LOW VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...TWD
LONG TERM...TWD
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/LAFLASH/TWD
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/LAFLASH/TWD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page