195
FXUS61 KCAR 041057
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
657 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS, MOSTLY
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TODAY WHILE A DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN
MAINE LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD NORTHERN
MAINE. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS MOSTLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE COASTAL FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WHILE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COULD STILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE EXITING FRONT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTH WITH MORE SUN, TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S NORTH, TO THE LOWER TO MID
40S DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM QUEBEC AND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH ON MONDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST WHERE AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE AND WHERE SOME MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LARGE BUT WEAK STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE MOVING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A
LARGE BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH AND SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUBTROPICAL AIR WILL
MAKE TUESDAY A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID DAY FOR EARLY MAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL
STILL BE LIKELY, TO THE 50S DOWNEAST WHERE THERE WILL BE THICKER
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
40S.
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP ACROSS THE REGION
AND THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A DRY INTRUSION TOWARD DAWN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT RATHER MILD WITH LOWS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING A WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT A DRY INTRUSION MAY BRING A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AT TIMES,
LIKELY IN THE MORNING IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, OR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT. EITHER WAY, EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS WILL BE
FORECAST TO BE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL, IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE DAY MAY
BE RAIN FREE AND RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN
MAY. A STEADIER RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING
THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDING IN TO BRING WRAP AROUND
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME DRIZZLE, MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT.
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. COOLER AIR WILL WRAP SOUTH
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WITH HIGHS OVER THE NORTH NEAR 50 BUT
STILL UP TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND SOME DRYING MAY BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA.
THE END OF THE WEEK BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BUT THE ECMWF STALLING
THE SECONDARY LOW OFF OUR COAST CAUSING SHOWERS TO PERSIST.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL...GENERALLY VFR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD KHUL WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
KBGR/KBHB/DOWNEAST TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR,
TODAY WITH RAIN. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR EARLY
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING THEN VFR OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT NE WIND.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR SOUTH. LIGHT E WIND.
TUESDAY...MVFR BECOMING IFR SOUTH. VFR LOWERING TO MVFR NORTH. LIGHT
SE WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR. LIGHT SE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...IFR, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SE WIND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IFR NORTH. IFR TO MVFR SOUTH. N WIND.
THURSDAY...IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR NORTH. MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR SOUTH.
N WIND.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE WEEK. HUMID AIR OVER RELATIVELY COLDER WATERS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FOG OR MIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
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