714
FXUS61 KCAR 050134
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN EXIT ACROSS
THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OUT TO SEA LATER TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE, SKIES HAVE CLEARED. LOWS OVERNIGHT
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH, AND ONLY THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE BANGOR AREA AND THE
COAST, WHERE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST MUCH ON THE
NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE, THUS NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER THE COAST WILL SLOWLY SINK
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING, THE MOVE OFF OVER THE WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES WILL STICK AROUND IN THE SOUTH, KEEPING
TEMP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FOR THE NORTH, CLEAR SKIES WILL
REMAIN WITH LIGHT N WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS
INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE NORTH WOODS DROPPING TO
BELOW FREEZING. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN IN THE
REGION YET, BUT SENSITIVE PLANTS COULD BE AFFECTED.
BY MONDAY, THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE COUNTRY WILL PUSH A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COAST. THE 925MB MODEL TEMPS
SHOW COOLER TEMPS WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW 60S FOR THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NE
AND APPROACH US. MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
DRY FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS. LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO MOST PLACES. RAIN TOTALS
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK QUITE LIGHT OVER THE NORTH,
WITH LIKELY UNDER A QUARTER INCH, BUT TOWARD THE COAST THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY THANKS TO SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION, WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
WELL. STILL, EVEN THERE, LOOKING FOR SOMETHING IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF INCH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS LESS WET THAN TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST, BUT THE
UPPER LOW CENTER IS STILL A BIT TOO FAR TO OUR WEST AROUND
EASTERN NEW YORK TO PROVIDE MUCH LIFT. STILL COULD GET SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY IF WE GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP AS WELL INTO
THE MID 50S AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY, GIVING A SLIGHTLY MUGGY FEEL.
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH. SOME FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCES DECREASES PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS TO DO
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE
SW AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NW.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOST
OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTH, WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW. HOW MUCH RAIN, AND END
TIMING ON THURSDAY (ANYWHERE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY EVENING), IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL (<25 PERCENT) POSSIBILITY OF THE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN
THE NORTH BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY NOTABLE
ACCUMULATION EVEN IF SOME PLACES IN THE NORTH DO GET SOME
SNOWFLAKES. UNCERTAINLY ONLY GROWS BEYOND THURSDAY WITH A STRONG
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US. MANY MODELS
PINCH OFF/STRENGTHEN A NEW UPPER LOW TOWARD FRIDAY SOMEWHERE A
BIT TO OUR SW AND SLOWLY LIFT IT NE TO OUR AREA AROUND SATURDAY,
BUT AGAIN, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS, AND NOT ALL MODELS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION. FOR NOW, FORECAST JUST HAS AROUND A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/SATURDAY, BUT IT COULD BE DRY
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, IT COULD BE WET WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, OR IT COULD BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN,
THE DEFINITION OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: AROOSTOOK TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND UNLIMITED
CEILINGS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. NNW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON MONDAY.
BGR...MVFR/VFR THIS EVENING, THEN VFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
BHB...IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING, IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR LATER TONIGHT.
VFR MONDAY NNW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR, BECOMING MVFR LATE BGR/BHB. LIGHT SE WIND.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SOUTH. VFR LOWERING TO MVFR NORTH. S/SE WIND 10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH RAIN. S/SE WIND 5-10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON. S WIND 5-10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. VARIABLE WIND BECOMING N 10 KTS LATE.
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN AVIATION
CATEGORIES. GENERALLY N WIND 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VISIBILITY REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS PROBABLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
SATURDAY, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF LOW-END SMALL CRAFT WINDS
OR SEAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE S/SE/E THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN TRANSITION TO BEING FROM THE N/NE. FOG
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...TWD/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...TWD/LAFLASH/FOISY
MARINE...TWD/LAFLASH/FOISY
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