348
FXUS61 KCAR 051305
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY, CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
905AM UPDATE: SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
IN THE NORTH AND DECREASING IN THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY
FORECAST TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM QUEBEC WILL BRING BRIGHT
SUNSHINE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH SUNSHINE
MIXED WITH A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER A CHILLY START
THIS MORNING, INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH COMBINED WITH A LARGE BUT WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BY
MORNING, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE OVERCAST WHILE THE NORTH IS
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY
INTO SOUTHWESTERN AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE DOMINANT ACRS THE CONUS ON TUESDAY WITH UPR LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE OH VALLEY. FAR EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WILL BE INFLUENCED TUESDAY MORNING BY UPR RIDGE THAT WILL
BEGIN TO LOSE IT/S GRIP BY THE AFTERNOON. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW STREAMING
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACRS THE NORTH
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S
OVER SOUTHERN SXNS WITH ONSHORE FLOW, CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS.
UPR LOW WL SLOWLY CREEP TWD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND POSSIBLY
THE OUTER ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER ENTIRE AREA WITH FOG EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNEAST.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON H5 TROF BEGINS TO DIG INTO EASTERN CANADA.
KICKING INITIAL CLOSED LOW OVER CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THURSDAY WILL SEE COLD FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END LATE THURSDAY EVENING. H5 TROF DIGGING OUT
OF CANADA IS FCST TO EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE APPALACHIANS IN
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO DRIFT AIMLESSLY INTO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY, A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY WEEK/S END
AND INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE CLOSED LOW PROGGED FOR THE ERN HALF
OF THE CONUS.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
E WIND TODAY AND SE WIND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY...VFR NORTH LOWERING TO MVFR LATE IN RAIN. MVFR/IFR DOWNEAST
TERMINALS IN RAIN/FOG. SSE 5-15KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR IN RAIN ALL TERMINALS. SSE 5-10KTS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR IN THE MORNING, POSSIBLE MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. S 5-
10KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SSE 5KTS BECOMING N 5KTS LATE.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLY IMPROVING LATE. N 5-15KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES IN RAIN
AND FOG. NNE 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN
UP TO 3 FT TODAY AND 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR BOTH SEAS AND WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH
WINDS BRIEFLY APPROACHING SCA LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...BLOOMER/LAFLASH/BUSTER
MARINE...BLOOMER/LAFLASH/BUSTER
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