927
FXUS61 KCAR 051902
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
302 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PER THE UPPER AIR MAPS, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS THE OCCLUSIONS MOVES ENE. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE OCCLUSION MOVE
INTO THE REGION. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BANGOR REGION. HOWEVER, UPPER AIR
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS,
WHICH COULD OFF RAIN UNTIL LATER. CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE FROM
THE SW TO THE NE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. EARLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE
NORTH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S, BUT EXPECTED TO
REGULATE WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN. IN THE SOUTH, CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN MUCH EARLIER TONIGHT KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.
BY TUESDAY, THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NE MAKING FOR A RAINY
AND CLOUDY DAY. SSE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER DAY IN THE
NORTH, BUT COOLER TEMPS FOR DOWNEAST. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
THE NORTH AND LOW 50S FOR THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD. ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE KATAHDIN REGION SOUTHWARD,
THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FURTHER NORTH. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
OVER THE WATERS TO PERHAPS COASTAL DOWNEAST. IN ADDITION,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK SOUTHWARD. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OPEN UP AND
EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SETUP RESULTS IN THE GREATEST ODDS OF RAIN
AND RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF KATAHDIN. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST, WHERE HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RAIN SHOWER THREAT
ONCE AGAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH, ANY
FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE NORTH WOODS, AND NEAR 50
DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO
BECOME LESS NUMEROUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NORTHWARD, BEFORE
HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN FALLING A BIT DURING THE DAY. THE BANGOR
REGION AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING FOR HIGHS TO BE
NEAR 60 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE OLD
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM MAINE. THAT SAID, CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DO DROP THURSDAY NIGHT,
BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE TOP OF KATAHDIN.
FORECAST CONTINUE TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER THE APPALACHIANS, FORMING A COASTAL LOW AT THE
SURFACE. THIS LOW COULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES
NOT HANDLE THE PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LOWS VERY WELL,
PARTICULARLY SEVERAL DAYS IN ADVANCE. THUS, STAY TUNED FOR
FUTURE UPDATES AS THE TIME FRAME GETS CLOSER. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS THAT THE PATTERN COULD BECOME LESS UNSETTLED TOWARDS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: AROOSTOOK TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. THEN MVFR BY EARLY TUESDAY IN CIGS DUE TO RAIN.
LIGHT SSE WINDS TONIGHT, THEN S WINDS 5-10 KTS TUESDAY.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN MVFR/IFR BY MIDNIGHT IN LOW CIGS. BY TUESDAY,
LOWER VSBY DUE TO RAIN. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN ALL TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG AT BGR AND DOWNEAST TERMINALS. SSE WINDS 5-10KTS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN. PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS 5-10KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. LIFR POSSIBLE
BGR AND DOWNEAST WITH PATCHY FOG. SSE WINDS 5KTS
BECOMING N 5KTS LATE.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS ALL DAY.
VFR POSSIBLE BGR AND DOWNEAST LATE. N WINDS 5-15KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
VFR/MVFR BGR AND DOWNEAST WITH VCSH. WINDS NNE 5-15 KTS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH VCSH, ESPECIALLY BGR AND DOWNEAST.
NE WINDS 5-15 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. LIGHT E-NE
WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT IS NOTED THAT THE OUTER WATERS COULD SEE
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, BUT IS FAIRLY MARGINAL IN THE CURRENT
BOUNDARY LAYER.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS COULD GET TO BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE WINDS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH BORDERLINE SCA CRITERIA AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY ON THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY ON THE WATERS AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...LAFLASH/CLARK
MARINE...LAFLASH/CLARK
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