813
FXUS61 KCAR 061338
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
938 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:30 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, AND THIS
WILL TAMPER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE ADJUSTED
CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL BUILD NORTH FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY,
REACHING THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING. SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING,
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S DOWNEAST WHERE A COOLER WIND OFF THE WATER AND LOWER
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING, TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE NORTH
WHERE THINNER CLOUDS TO START THE MORNING WILL ALLOW SOME SOLAR
HEATING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS
A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW CARRIES MOISTURE NORTH. OCCASIONAL
RAIN WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE NORTH TO A HALF
INCH DOWNEAST. THE THICKER CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A
MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SRLY FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SITTING JUST BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN MID-
MORNING AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN AS CLOSED LOW EJECTS TWD CWA. EXPECTING
THAT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE EITHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE LATE MORNING BEFORE UPR COLD POOL AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT BRINGS STEADY RAIN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTH WOODS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST UP INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. BULK OF THE
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPR LOW
EJECTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, CROSSING INTO ERN CANADA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY, COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO
DOWNEAST WITH MOST OF THE FOG CONFINED TO THE COAST.
INITIAL LOW WILL BE MOVING TWD THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY MORNING
WITH UPR TROF DIVING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS KEEPS CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ACRS
THE SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE NORTH WITH NORTH WOODS REMAINING
IN THE U40S.
YET ANOTHER H5 LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF BACK TO OUR
WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY INTO THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
H5 LOW WILL BE DIGGING INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AREA AND EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF ON FRIDAY. MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE EXACTLY IT CLOSES
OFF AND WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER OUR AREA.
00Z CMC CLOSES IT OFF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT EJECTS THE LOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. MEANWHILE, 00Z
GFS CLOSES IT OFF OVER WRN NYS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN
FOR THE AREA AS IT EJECTS IT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLE
MEANS AGREE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC RUNS.
00Z EC LOOKS SIMILAR TO ITS PRIOR RUN CLOSING OFF LOW OVER NEOH ON
FRIDAY AND EJECTING IT INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION BRINGS RAIN INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY EVENING WITH RAIN
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED NBM AS IT IS
CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR FORECAST AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS MORE OF THE EC
SOLN. HOWEVER HAVE CAPPED POPS AT JUST CHANCE AS IT IS TOO EARLY TO
GO WITH LIKELY POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
ONCE THIS LOW EJECTS INTO CANADA ZONAL FLOW WITH FAST-MOVING S/WVS
ZIPPING THROUGH WILL FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM:
LOWERING CEILINGS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AND ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY MVFR OR LOWER. IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
LIGHT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG. MVFR POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. S 5-15KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. IFR/LIFR
IN SHOWERS AND FOG DOWNEAST. S 5KTS BECOMING NW LATE.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN NORTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. NW 5-10KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR ALL TERMINALS. N 5-10KTS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW. N 5KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
WINDS WILL BE SE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 4 FT
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/LF
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...BLOOMER/LF/BUSTER
MARINE...BLOOMER/LF/BUSTER
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