656
FXUS61 KCAR 260229
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1029 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN BEGIN TO EXIT EARLY THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SLOWLY TRACKS OVER THE AREA LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
1030 PM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AND WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING, FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ANY CLEARING THAT OCCURS. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A LITTLE
QUICKER BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST. ONLY
CHG NEEDED WAS TO MENTION FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS VERY
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPING
OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN NUMBER AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR, THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE.
MORE CLEARING WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH WOODS AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. THE LACK OF SURFACE
INVERSION OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE WESTERN
NORTH WOODS WHERE CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR,
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY CREATE ENOUGH OF A SHALLOW INVERSION TO
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND ALLOW FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT.
THAT SAID, SOME HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND THE TIME THAT THE LOW CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO BREAK APART, AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST TO A
MINIMUM. ELSEWHERE, LOWS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S DUE TO
CONTINUED PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO POTENTIALLY
LOWER 70S. A FEW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY, BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
..IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM..
MON NIGHT EXPECT AN ELONGATED AREA OF 1027MB HIGH TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH A LITTLE
WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB FLOW. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AREAWIDE. ON TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL
BE OUT OF THE W-NW GENERALLY 5-10MPH ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14 TO +15C ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
HIGHS INTO THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW 70S FOR THE
NORTH WOODS TO MOOSEHEAD REGION ON THE UPSLOPE SIDE OF THE
LONGFELLOW MTNS, COOL AROUND MOOSEHEAD GIVEN THE COLD WATER BODY
INFLUENCE. ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, INTERIOR DOWNEAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE CROWN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST THE WEAK FLOW SUPPORTS A THERMAL INDUCED
SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
OFF THE COLD 40-45F GULF OF MAINE WATERS. HIGHS AT THE
SHORELINE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S TO 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW
70S ALONG ROUTE 1.
TUE NIGHT THE ELONGATED HIGH APPROACHING 1028-1029MB WILL BE
RIGHT OVERHEAD AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING A CLEAR NIGHT WITH 500MB
RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMER 925MB TEMPS SPILL OVER THE FLOW OUT OF JAMES
BAY IN CANADA RESULTING IN A NIGHT OF UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR
MOST. WEDNESDAY EXPECT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A FEW CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
5-10MPH ACROSS THE NORTH, W-NW FLOW FOR CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
WSW-W FLOW FOR MUST OF THE DOWNEAST AND BANGOR REGION. WEAK FLOW
AGAIN WITH HUGE THERMAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAND AND THE GULF
WILL RESULT IN A SEABREEZE S-WSW FLOW AT THE SHORE. HIGHS TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH, MID 70S FOR MOOSEHEAD
REGION, UPPER 70S FOR CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO BANGOR REGION
EASTWARD INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST. LOW 70S FOR ALONG ROUTE 1
DOWNEAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE SHORELINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
..UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND..
OVERALL PATTERN..LARGE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ONCE AGAIN AND MUCH COOLER AIR DIPS
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WHILE LARGE HEAT RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST.
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EXPECT IT TO SLOW AND
LIKELY RESULTS IN YET ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UNITED
STATES. ONCE AGAIN THE UPPER LOW IS NEAR MAINE AND THIS MEANS
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD
AS A 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT S DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE 10-15MPH. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE AND INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.
HIGHS IN THE NORTH UPPER 70S, LOW 70S ELSEWHERE AND UPPER 60S
DOWNEAST EXCEPT 50S ALONG THE SHORELINE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS
LOCKED OVERHEAD. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF A STEADY RAIN ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON EITHER SIDE.
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES WRAPPING AROUND THE TROF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OVERALL STORY IS HIGH PROBABILITY IN A WET PERIOD FROM FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THIS LAST
UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT MID
CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK. NNW WINDS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10KTS NEXT 24
HOURS.
SHORT TERM: TUE...VFR. NW 5-10KT, EXCEPT SW 5-10KT AT BHB IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEABREEZE.
WED...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10KT, EXCEPT SW 5-10KT AT BGR AND BHB IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEABREEZE.
THU...VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN AM FOG AT BHB AND BGR. S-SSW WINDS
10-15KT.
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS. -RA LIKELY. SW WINDS 10-15KT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 FT AND
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING NW AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. LOW
CHANCE FOR MARINE FOG THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN FORECAST.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. RAIN AND FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES
FROM THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND MAINLY SEAS 4-6FT BUT WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 25KT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/BUSTER
SHORT TERM...SINKO
LONG TERM...SINKO
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/BUSTER/SINKO
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/BUSTER/SINKO
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