651
FXUS61 KCAR 261922
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THEN EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND SLOWLY TRACKS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT 500MB PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING PRIOR TO SUNSET. WITHIN THIS CU
FIELD CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SHOWER. AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN DRIER AND WARMER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SKIES GOING CLEAR TONIGHT. NNW WINDS AND COASTAL SEABREEZE WILL
WEAK AND WINDS GO MAINLY CALM TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
INTO THE LOW 40S NORTH, MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS TO DOWNEAST COAST.
TUESDAY EXPECT 500MB RIDGE TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST WITH WEAK
ELONGATED VORTICITY OVERHEAD AND SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE
WARMING AIRMASS. SURFACE 1028MB HIGH IS OVER THE AREA BUT GIVEN
SOME ENERGY ALOFT AND MOISTURE EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT WITHIN CU FIELD SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES ONCE AGAIN BUT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE NW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA WITH A
SW WIND ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE MOOSEHEAD REGION. A SW TO SSW ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
SHORELINE IS EXPECTED, THIS TYPICALLY HAPPENS WITHIN WEAK FLOW
AND GIVEN THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN LAND AND SEA. ALL
LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE WILL EXPERIENCE LOW RHS
AGAIN IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DECIDED TO GO BELOW NBM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL BE THE STORY FOR WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NORTHWARD. GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10-11C, MANY SPOTS
INLAND WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 DEGREES. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZY TO DEVELOP AT THE
DOWNEAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH OF
ROUTE 1, AND IN THE 60S TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT VERSUS TUESDAY NIGHT. BY LATE
THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. THAT SAID, WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE A SHOWER BY
SUNSET. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWER TO
MID 70S FROM BANGOR NORTHWARD. DOWNEAST IS FORECAST TO STAY IN
THE 60S, WITH 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG-TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE ONE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MERGING WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THIS MERGED UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THIS
IS A PATTERN THAT FAVORS UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY, AND
TRACKING TOWARDS DOWNEAST MAINE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION, BUT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH. THUS, DECIDED TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE NBM FOR THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD. CAPPED POPS AT LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CIGS THIS EVE BECOMING SKC. WNW-N WINDS 5-15KT
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TOMORROW SKC BECOMING SCT
VFR CIGS. NW WINDS 5-10KT WITH SW WINDS 5-10KT AT BHB IN THE PM.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. W-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE AT BGR AND GNR LATE WITH
VCSH. S-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS, GUSTING 15-20 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR EARLY, TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH
-SHRA AND BCFG. S WINDS 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. PERIODS OF RA
AND SHRA. S-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SEAS 1-2FT THROUGH TOMORROW. SEA
SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 43-46F RANGE FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST OUT 25NM AND EAST TO THE HAGUE LINE INCLUDING
PASSAMAQUODDY BAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SINKO
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...SINKO/CLARK
MARINE...SINKO/CLARK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page