457
FXUS61 KCAR 270422
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1222 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SLOWLY TRACKS OVER THE AREA LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH,
TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY EXPECT 500MB RIDGE TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST WITH WEAK
ELONGATED VORTICITY OVERHEAD AND SOME MOISTURE WITHIN THE
WARMING AIRMASS. SURFACE 1028MB HIGH IS OVER THE AREA BUT GIVEN
SOME ENERGY ALOFT AND MOISTURE EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT WITHIN CU FIELD SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES ONCE AGAIN BUT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE NW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA WITH A
SW WIND ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE MOOSEHEAD REGION. A SW TO SSW ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
SHORELINE IS EXPECTED, THIS TYPICALLY HAPPENS WITHIN WEAK FLOW
AND GIVEN THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN LAND AND SEA. ALL
LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE WILL EXPERIENCE LOW RHS
AGAIN IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DECIDED TO GO BELOW NBM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL BE THE STORY FOR WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NORTHWARD. GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10-11C, MANY SPOTS
INLAND WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 DEGREES. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZY TO DEVELOP AT THE
DOWNEAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH OF
ROUTE 1, AND IN THE 60S TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT VERSUS TUESDAY NIGHT. BY LATE
THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. THAT SAID, WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE A SHOWER BY
SUNSET. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWER TO
MID 70S FROM BANGOR NORTHWARD. DOWNEAST IS FORECAST TO STAY IN
THE 60S, WITH 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG-TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE ONE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MERGING WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THIS MERGED UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THIS
IS A PATTERN THAT FAVORS UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY, AND
TRACKING TOWARDS DOWNEAST MAINE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION, BUT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH. THUS, DECIDED TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE NBM FOR THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD. CAPPED POPS AT LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. W-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE AT BGR AND GNR LATE WITH
VCSH. S-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS, GUSTING 15-20 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR EARLY, TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH
-SHRA AND BCFG. S WINDS 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. PERIODS OF RA
AND SHRA. S-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/SINKO
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CLARK
MARINE...NORCROSS/CLARK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page