838
FXUS61 KCAR 271057
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
657 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS, MOSTLY
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING. DIURNAL CLOUDS THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, COULD HAVE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALSO POSSIBLY SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY HAVE NOTHING
MORE THAN SPRINKLES. DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
LEAVING CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH, TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRING ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE GROUND A BIT
DRIER, INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN FOR 80. IT WILL BE A
TRANQUIL DAY WITH JUST A VERY LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 50. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE SHORTWAVE AND VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY BRINGING A CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY DIFFER ON HOW WELL
ORGANIZED THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST ORGANIZED,
BRINGING UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN, THE GFS IS A BIT LESS
ORGANIZED ONLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE DOWNEAST COAST AND
THE NAM CARRYING THE WEAK LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AS THE LOW SLIDE EAST AND AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON FRIDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTH, AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE NORTHEAST.
OUR FOCUS ON FRIDAY THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY LARGER STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE LOW IS BEING GENERATED
BY A MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
STREAM. THE ULTIMATE TRACK, IMPACT AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW WELL A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES PHASES IN WITH IT. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIG THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WEST OF THE LOW, ENGAGING
THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW AND LIFTING IT NORTH ADDING ENERGY TO IT
AND TRACKING IT UP INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY LIFT NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS, A
GUSTY WEST WIND, AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON THE PHASING, THEY DISAGREE ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WHOLE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH THE GFS LIFTING IT OUT
MUCH MORE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SW WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR SOUTH LATE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR SOUTH. LIGHT S WIND.
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR. LIGHT S WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR SOUTH. VFR LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR SOUTH. S
WIND.
SATURDAY...IFR S WIND BECOMING E.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND. SEAS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT LATE SATURDAY AND REACH UP TO
8 FT ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH WELL OFF
THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
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