921
FXUS61 KCAR 280414
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND LIGHT
WINDS TURN MORE W ACROSS THE NORTH AND SW IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS CU EXPECTED AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80F EXCEPT MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPES OF THE LONGFELLOW MTNS. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
LOW AFTERNOON RHS IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE EXCEPT AT THE
SHORELINE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. CLOUDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE TO NBM
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDER NORTHERN VALLEYS, WITH LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST, AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH
AND WEST. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE BY THE
AFTERNOON.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY, AND TRACK OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN
AREAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND EVERYWHERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST OF THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY AND THE NORTH WOODS. NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR RAINMAKER,
WITH MOST PLACES SEEING LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. ANY
STEADY RAIN WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, COULD STILL
SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY, MAINLY BANGOR NORTHWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND. SOME UPPER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY DUE TO
MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT 50S AND 60S FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER ONE OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TOWARDS MAINE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SPREAD AMONGST
GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
THE LOW OVER WESTERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, THE 12Z CMC, ECMWF AIFS,
AND ICON TRACK THE LOW EAST OF MAINE. THIS SPREAD IS REFLECTED
IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
REGARDLESS, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, GRADUALLY MODERATING NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DOWNEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SW WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR SOUTH LATE WITH VCSH.
S-SW WINDS 5-15 KTS, GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH WITH
-RA AND BCFG. S WINDS 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR TO VFR WITH VCSH. LIGHT S-SW WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH WITH -SHRA AND BCFG. VFR LOWERING
TO MVFR THEN IFR NORTH WITH -SHRA DEVELOPING. S WIND.
SATURDAY...IFR OR LOWER WITH RA. S WIND 5-15 KTS, BECOMING E-SE
LATE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR EARLY WITH RA, IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE WITH
VCSH. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS, BECOMING W LATE.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH VCSH. W WINDS 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEA SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 43-46F RANGE FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST OUT 25NM AND EAST TO
THE HAGUE LINE INCLUDING PASSAMAQUODDY BAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WEST WINDS
COULD GUST CLOSE TO 25 KTS ON THE OUTERMOST WATERS SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/SINKO
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CLARK
MARINE...NORCROSS/SINKO/CLARK
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