892
FXUS61 KCAR 281730
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
130 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY, THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1240PM UPDATE...
WARM, QUIET DAY UNDERWAY. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO DROP DEWPOINTS A
FEW DEGREES, MAINLY IN THE NORTH, DUE TO OBSERVED DEWPOINTS
GETTING LOWER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO, INCREASED WINDS A LITTLE AS
WINDS ARE ALSO RUNNING A BIT GUSTIER THAN WHAT WAS IN THE
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RIDGING, SURFACE/ALOFT, WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH AN UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOWS WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
NORTH, TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BACK AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS A
RETURN FLOW USHERS SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM FAVORS CENTRAL AREAS GETTING THE SHOWERS,
THE GFS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS, AND THE ECMWF, WHICH HAS THE
GREATEST COVERAGE, FAVORS SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE NAM,
AND THE HRRR THAT FAR OUT, SEEM TO BE SHOWING SOME LOW TOP
CONVECTION. CAPES ADVERTISED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE AROUND 150
J/KG WHICH IS WEAK, BUT ENOUGH FOR A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER.
WILL INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE HIGHLANDS WHERE A LONE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND, SUPPORTED BY SOME LIFT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL CANADA.
OUR FOCUS ON FRIDAY THEN TURNS TO A STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC WILL BEGIN DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH, PHASING WITH IT AND ADDING VIGOR TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINED
TROUGHS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. A STEADY RAIN WILL SPREAD
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, REACHING FAR
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. HUMID AIR BEING
DRAWN NORTH ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME FOG FOR COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE, SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE
LOW, AND DYNAMIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE PHASING TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT
RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES, WITH UP TO TWO INCHES IN SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
HIGHLANDS, SEEMS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO QUEBEC LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRY
INTRUSION WILL LIKELY SWING UP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT ENDING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTHWEST, AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL STILL
BE AROUND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AS
MODERATELY COOLER AIR SLIDES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE LOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
WHILE DOWNEAST HAS A RETURN TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
MOISTURE POOLED IN THE LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP NORTHERN
AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
DOWNEAST WILL TURN OUR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AREAWIDE. W/NW WINDS 5-10 KTS
GUSTING AROUND 15 KTS, EXCEPT S 10-15 KTS NEAR THE COAST,
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS EASE TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR BHB/BGR LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW SHOWERS FROM GNR/MLT NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL POSSIBILITY (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) OF BRINGING BRIEF MVFR
AT ANY TAF SITE FROM GNR/MLT NORTH, THOUGH VFR WILL BY FAR BE
DOMINANT. SW WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES SOUTH. LIGHT S WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR BECOMING VFR. LIGHT SW WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR LOWERING TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. S
WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SE WINDS. S WIND SHEAR
LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR SOUTH LATE. S WIND
SHEAR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...MVFR NORTH. VFR SOUTH. GUSTY SW WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KT IN GUSTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL REACH 5 FT LATE
SATURDAY AND 10 FT SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...FOISY/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
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