873
FXUS61 KCAR 281916
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
316 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COASTAL
LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NORTH
ACROSS MAINE SATURDAY, THEN SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH THE MARITIMES
INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON...
VERY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80. DEEP
MIXING HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
MOST AREAS, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
JUST A FEW CUMULUS MAINLY RUNNING FROM MOOSEHEAD LAKE
EAST/SOUTHWEST. SOMEWHAT BREEZY FROM THE W/NW, EXCEPT FROM THE S
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. MOST OF THE WINDS INLAND ARE
COMING FROM DEEP MIXING.
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE INCREASING, MAINLY HIGH,
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM WEST, WITH A S/SW BREEZE.
STILL WARM ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH/EAST YOU GO THANKS TO
FEWER CLOUDS AND LESS MARINE INFLUENCE IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S/LOW 70S DOWNEAST UP TOWARD
MOOSEHEAD LAKE, TO THE UPPER 70S OVER NE AROOSTOOK. PERHAPS JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE
NORTH. HAVE POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT AND CHANCE OF THUNDER UP TO
20 PERCENT MAINLY IN THE NORTH WOODS. NOT A BIG DEAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION ALOFT FRIDAY WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MAINE SATURDAY, COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
RAIN TO ALL OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN RAIN (DEVELOPING FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE MORNING). IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS, AS WELL AS THE REGION BEING IN
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 130+KT UPPER JET, TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL, WITH ANY CONVECTION MOST
LIKELY BEING ELEVATED IN NATURE VICE SURFACE BASED. SHOWALTERS
STAY ABOVE -2, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS, HOWEVER COULD
HAVE SOME LOCALLY STRONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
BEING POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1/2 TO 1 1/3 INCHES
OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
FALLING ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS, HOWEVER NUISANCE FLOODING OF KNOWN LOW SPOTS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS FROM
SW TO NE AS IT DOES SO. SHOWALTERS REMAIN DOWN AROUND 0-3 IN THE
EVENING, SO STILL A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER JET MOVING FURTHER TO THE EAST, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY STRONG CONVECTION.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY-
MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE, BRINGING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION, FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITS THE AREA TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY, HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY MONDAY EVENING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AT NIGHT, THEN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
THEN BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM:
REST OF AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AREAWIDE. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, W/NW
WINDS 5-10 KTS GUSTING AROUND 15 KTS, EXCEPT S 10-15 KTS NEAR
THE COAST. WINDS EASE TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR BHB/BGR LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW SHOWERS FROM GNR/MLT NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL POSSIBILITY (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) OF BRINGING BRIEF MVFR
AT ANY TAF SITE FROM GNR/MLT NORTH, THOUGH VFR WILL BY FAR BE
DOMINANT. SW WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
IN ANY PATCH FOG FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. LLWS PROBABLE
AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MVFR. LLWS POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT FROM S TO N SUNDAY. SW-W
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT, WITH A SW WIND
10-15 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH SEAS 1-4 FEET.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
AND DEVELOP OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. THE SCA CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS, BUT SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...FOISY/MALOIT
MARINE...FOISY/MALOIT
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