340
FXUS61 KCAR 291958
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
358 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
ON FRIDAY...APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING, BRINGING
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS, BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
WILL ADD TO SURFACE INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, BUT INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING, FIRST SUBDUING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LATER DISSIPATING SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THESE WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AGAIN,
WITH BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST.
ACROSS DOWNEAST, CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY BECOME INCREASINGLY
STABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE MARINE LAYER ON
SHORE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF MARYLAND GOES OUT TO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY SLIDES UP TO NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO MAINE,
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. CLOUDS MOVE IN, LEADING TO YET ANOTHER RAINY, MOSTLY
OVERCAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S
THROUGHOUT MAINE. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NOT THINKING TOO MANY BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TO FAVOR THIS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MAINE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED IN THE HIGH-50S/ LOWER-60S.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL PASSAGE PROVIDING SOME LIFT
HOLDS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY.
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GOES INLAND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAINE. FROM THIS LOW, SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SLIDES UP ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE NORTH, GENERALLY LOOKING AT AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE NORTH AND WEST, AND HALF AND INCH TO AN
INCH DOWNEAST. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-50S. HIGHS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER-50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN MOVE NORTH INTO CANADA, WITH RAIN
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BY MONDAY NIGHT, LOW BECOMES STATIONARY IN CANADA AND
FINALLY MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING
TO FIGURE OUT WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE EURO HAS A MUCH SLOWER LOW
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT, WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE NJ COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS, HOWEVER, HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORM OFF OF
MASSACHUSETTS AND SLIGHT UP THE MAINE COAST. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EURO
HAS MORE RAIN FALLING IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE, AND THE GFS HAS
MORE RAIN FALLING IN CENTRAL MAINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK, AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING MVFR
IN THE NORTH WITH -SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
REGION BUT NONE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BGR/BHB WILL BECOME
IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER MOVES IN. THIS WILL
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR IN
PATCHY FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S/SW AT 5-10
KTS, BECOMING E BY DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. POTENTIAL FOR SOME GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10KTS,
BECOMING SW SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
WINDS FROM THE SW 5-15KTS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS FROM THE SW AT 5-10 KTS, SHIFTING TO THE W BY TUESDAY,
MONDAY NIGHT – TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN CLEARED OUT.
WINDS FROM THE W/SW AT 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BEFORE JUMPING TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTER
WATERS COULD SEE SEAS AS HIGH AT 8FT ON SUNDAY. RAIN BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND STAYS AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG OVER THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS FROM THE
S/SW AT 5-10KTS. WINDS GUSTS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA ON SATURDAY, BUT GET UP TO 25KTS BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...BRENNAN
LONG TERM...BRENNAN
AVIATION...LF/BRENNAN
MARINE...LF/BRENNAN
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